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TSA passenger screenings on Oct 29, 2026
kalshi

How many passengers will TSA screen?

Volume:
$1,599

At least 2,400,000 passengers

 - Kalshi

At least 2,400,000 passengers - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 30, 2026

Closed: Oct 30, 6:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 2,400,000 passengers

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$629
N/A
N/A
$629
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,500,000 passengers

View
100%
41%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$566
N/A
N/A
$566
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,600,000 passengers

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$394
N/A
N/A
$394
3d 9h 29m
No
kalshi

At least 2,800,000 passengers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
3d 9h 29m
No
kalshi

At least 1,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 1,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,300,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,700,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
No
kalshi

At least 2,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
No
kalshi

At least 3,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
No
kalshi

At least 3,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
No
kalshi

At least 3,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
3d 9h 29m
No
Total markets: 15

Description

These markets assess whether the Transportation Security Administration will screen a specific number of passengers at airport checkpoints across the United States on a single day in late October 2026. The outcome depends on the initial official count reported for that date, reflecting public interest in travel demand forecasts.

Kalshi

All markets share a common resolution mechanism based on the first published nationwide TSA passenger screening count for October 29, 2026. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from 1,800,000 to 3,200,000 passengers. If the reported figure meets or exceeds a market's specific threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The underlying data source is TSA’s official Passenger Volumes page, and only the first published value for the date counts—subsequent corrections or revisions are disregarded. If the initial publication is delayed, resolution is postponed until the data becomes available, subject to any contract expiration or contingency rules. The exact count is used without rounding, and all markets resolve simultaneously based on the same underlying number.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the TSA passenger screening market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for total passenger screenings on October 29, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how the market has valued different possibilities over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,599, and the total volume traded to date, totaling $1,599. This allows traders to gauge market interest and activity related to this specific event.

Currently, it's important to remember that analyst forecasts and polls represent opinions, while this market reflects what traders are willing to wager. Discrepancies can arise due to differing information access, biases, or simply varying interpretations of available data. If analysts predict a certain passenger volume, but traders believe factors like economic conditions or travel trends will lead to a different result, the odds in this market will adjust accordingly. Comparing these perspectives can offer a more nuanced understanding of potential outcomes than relying on either source in isolation.

This market resolves around Nov 6, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final passenger screening numbers reported by the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) for October 29, 2026, will determine the outcome. The market will settle based on the official, publicly available data released by the TSA, providing a clear and objective determination of the result. Traders should monitor official TSA communications as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic shifts, such as a recession or a surge in consumer spending, could impact travel demand. Unexpected events like a pandemic resurgence, geopolitical instability, or significant airline disruptions could also cause substantial price movements. Changes in TSA policies or security protocols, or even large-scale events drawing significant crowds to airports, could also shift trader sentiment and affect the odds. Monitoring these kinds of developments will be crucial for anyone participating in this market.