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TSA passenger screenings on Oct 24, 2026
kalshi

How many passengers will TSA screen?

Volume:
$1,340

At least 2,100,000 passengers

 - Kalshi

At least 2,100,000 passengers - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 25, 6:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 2,100,000 passengers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$766
N/A
N/A
$620
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,000,000 passengers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,200,000 passengers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$571
N/A
N/A
$569
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,300,000 passengers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 1,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 1,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,400,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,500,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,600,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,700,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

These markets track the volume of passengers processed through Transportation Security Administration checkpoints on a specific future date. The outcome depends on comparing the officially reported passenger count against various thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, reflecting varying expectations about travel demand.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the first published nationwide TSA passenger screening count for October 24, 2026, as reported on the TSA’s Passenger Volumes page. The exact count is used without rounding, and only the initial published figure counts—later corrections or revisions are disregarded. If the publication of data for that date is delayed, resolution is postponed until the data becomes available, subject to the contract’s expiration and any contingency rules. Each individual market has a specific numerical threshold; if the published count meets or exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, it's difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded within this market to specific analyst forecasts for TSA passenger numbers on that date. However, broadly speaking, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional polls or analyst reports. Analysts typically rely on econometric models and historical trends, while this market reflects the collective judgment of traders who may consider factors such as economic conditions, travel patterns, and unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and assumptions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market's probability assessment of each outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to purchase it, and it also indicates the potential payout if that outcome resolves as true. The market dynamically adjusts to reflect the collective intelligence of its participants.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passengers screened by the TSA on October 24, 2026, as officially reported by the TSA, will determine the winning outcome. The resolution will be based on the official TSA data release, ensuring a transparent and verifiable result. Traders will then receive payouts based on the outcome and their positions in this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and its resolution. Major economic shifts, such as a recession or a surge in consumer confidence, would likely impact travel demand and, consequently, TSA passenger screenings. Unexpected events like a pandemic resurgence, geopolitical instability, or major weather events could also disrupt travel plans. Changes in government travel policies or security protocols could also play a role. Any news related to airline industry performance or travel trends will be closely watched by traders in this market.