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TSA passenger screenings on Oct 15, 2026
kalshi

How many passengers will TSA screen on Oct 15, 2026?

Volume:
$66

At least 2,800,000 passengers

 - Kalshi

At least 2,800,000 passengers - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 6:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 2,800,000 passengers

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,900,000 passengers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$36
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 1,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 1,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,300,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,400,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,500,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,600,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,700,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 3,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

These markets assess the volume of travelers passing through airport security checks on a specific future date, reflecting public interest in predicting air travel demand. Outcomes hinge on comparing the initial official report against various threshold values to determine success.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the first published nationwide TSA passenger screening count for October 15, 2026, reported on TSA’s Passenger Volumes page. The exact count is used without rounding, and only the initial publication matters—later corrections or revisions are disregarded. Resolution waits for the specified date’s data, subject to contract expiration or contingency rules. Each market has a unique threshold: if the count meets or exceeds its specified minimum (ranging from 1,800,000 to 3,200,000 passengers), it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the TSA passenger screening market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the number of passengers screened by the TSA on October 15, 2026. You’ll find the implied probability of each outcome, a price history chart showing how the market has moved over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $66. The total volume traded in this market is $66. This provides a real-time view of where traders believe passenger volume will land.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those forecasts are not yet widely available for a date so far in the future. However, historical data suggests that prediction markets can often outperform polls and expert opinions, incorporating a wider range of information and incentives. It will be interesting to see how this market evolves as we get closer to October 15, 2026, and how its predictions align with any emerging analyst expectations for travel volume.

This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passengers screened by the TSA on October 15, 2026, as reported by the TSA itself, will determine the winning outcome. This data is publicly available and serves as the basis for settling the contracts traded in this market. Traders will be able to see the final result and whether their predictions were accurate shortly after the official TSA data is released.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic shifts, such as a recession or strong economic growth, could impact travel demand. Geopolitical events, like international conflicts or travel restrictions, could also play a role. Changes in airline ticket prices, fuel costs, or major sporting/entertainment events scheduled for that date could all move this market. Additionally, any news regarding TSA staffing levels or security procedures could affect predictions about screening capacity and passenger flow.