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TSA passenger screenings on Oct 13, 2026
kalshi

How many passengers will TSA screen?

Volume:
$190

At least 2,400,000 passengers

 - Kalshi

At least 2,400,000 passengers - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 14, 2026

Closed: Oct 14, 6:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 2,400,000 passengers

View
0%
35%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
$179
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 1,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 1,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,300,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,500,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,600,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,700,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

These markets track the volume of travelers processed through U.S. security checkpoints on a specific travel day. The outcomes depend on comparing the initial official count against various thresholds, reflecting expectations about travel demand and operational capacity.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the first published nationwide TSA passenger screening count for October 13, 2026, reported on the TSA’s Passenger Volumes page. The exact count is used without rounding, and only the initial publication matters—later corrections or revisions are disregarded. If the data release is delayed, resolution is postponed until the figure becomes available, provided it occurs before the contract’s expiration or any applicable contingency deadlines. Each market has a distinct threshold: resolution occurs as 'Yes' if the published count meets or exceeds the specified minimum (ranging from 1,800,000 to 3,200,000 passengers). The underlying data source and methodology remain consistent across all markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the TSA passenger screening market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the number of passengers screened by the TSA on October 13, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart displaying how the perceived probability of each outcome has changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $190, and the total volume traded to date, which is $190. This allows you to see how much activity there is in this market and gauge the level of interest from traders.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional analyst forecasts, as those are not yet widely available for an event so far in the future. However, prediction markets often incorporate a wider range of information and perspectives than traditional forecasts, potentially leading to more accurate predictions. It will be interesting to observe how the market’s implied probability evolves as we get closer to October 13, 2026, and compare it to any published estimates regarding travel volume and security screening rates.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes, and the prices of these contracts reflect the market’s collective belief about the probability of each outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract represents the cost to purchase it, which also indicates the implied probability of that outcome being realized. Higher prices suggest a lower probability, and vice versa.

This market resolves around Oct 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of passengers screened by the TSA on October 13, 2026, as officially reported by the TSA itself, will determine the winning outcome in this market. The resolution will be based on the total number of passengers who underwent screening procedures at all TSA checkpoints nationwide on that specific date. The market will settle based on this publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic shifts, such as a recession or a strong economic recovery, could impact travel demand and therefore TSA screening numbers. Geopolitical events, including international conflicts or changes in travel restrictions, could also play a role. Furthermore, significant changes in airline schedules, major sporting events, or even large conventions scheduled for October 13, 2026, could affect passenger volume. Any news related to airport security protocols or public health concerns could also move this market.