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TSA passenger screenings on Oct 10, 2026
kalshi

What will TSA screenings be on Oct 10, 2026?

Volume:
$19

At least 2,900,000 passengers

 - Kalshi

At least 2,900,000 passengers - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 13, 2026

Closed: Oct 11, 6:59 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 2,900,000 passengers

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19
N/A
N/A
$19
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 1,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 1,900,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

At least 2,300,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,400,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,500,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,600,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,700,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 2,800,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,000,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,100,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

At least 3,200,000 passengers

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This event tracks the volume of travelers passing through security checks at U.S. airports on a specific date, reflecting broader trends in air travel demand and operational capacity. The outcome depends on whether reported passenger numbers meet or exceed various thresholds, offering insight into travel patterns without detailing specific market mechanics.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the first published nationwide TSA passenger screening count for October 10, 2026, reported on the TSA’s Passenger Volumes page. The exact count is used without rounding, and only the initial publication matters—later corrections or revisions are disregarded. If data release is delayed, resolution is postponed until the figure becomes available, provided it occurs before the contract’s expiration or any applicable contingencies. Each market has a distinct threshold (ranging from 1,800,000 to 3,200,000 passengers); resolution to 'Yes' occurs if the reported number meets or exceeds its specific threshold. The underlying data source and resolution timing rules remain consistent across all markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the TSA passenger screening market tracks the current price of contracts, reflecting predictions about the number of passengers screened by the Transportation Security Administration on October 10, 2026. You’ll find a price history chart to visualize how expectations have shifted over time, as well as 24-hour volume of $19. Total volume traded on this market is currently $19. This allows traders to gauge the overall interest and conviction behind different potential outcomes.

Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the predictions embedded in this market to specific analyst forecasts for TSA passenger numbers on that date. Traditional forecasts often rely on macroeconomic models and historical trends, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders reacting to a broader range of information, including real-time events and potentially non-public data. Discrepancies between this market and external forecasts may arise due to differing methodologies and assumptions about future conditions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential outcomes for the number of passengers screened. The price of a contract indicates the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds based on their own research and beliefs, and the market price adjusts dynamically as new information becomes available and trading volume increases. The goal is to accurately reflect the collective prediction of the crowd.

This market resolves around Oct 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official passenger screening data for October 10, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect the actual number of passengers screened by the TSA on that date, as reported by the agency. The market will settle to 100 if the actual number exceeds the highest contract price, or to 0 if it falls below the lowest contract price, with linear interpolation in between.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Major economic shifts, such as a recession or a surge in consumer confidence, would likely impact travel demand and therefore passenger screening numbers. Unexpected events like a pandemic resurgence, geopolitical instability, or significant changes to airline pricing or travel regulations could also cause substantial movements. Additionally, any news related to TSA staffing levels, security protocols, or major airport infrastructure projects could affect predictions within this market.