TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$143,246,370

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,403,290,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,452,035,386

405,032

Markets across

30,543

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,690

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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TSA avg check-ins from Jul 27 to Aug 2, 2026?
kalshi

TSA avg check-ins from Jul 27 to Aug 2, 2026?

Volume:
$10,043

Above 2.65 million

 - Kalshi

Above 2.65 million - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 2, 11:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 2.65 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,090
N/A
N/A
$2,892
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.7 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,001
N/A
N/A
$1,511
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.6 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$212
N/A
N/A
$212
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.5 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$53
N/A
N/A
$53
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.4 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.45 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$52
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.9 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
$37
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.8 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.55 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.85 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.95 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.05 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.1 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.15 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.2 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.25 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.3 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.35 million

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.75 million

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,506
N/A
N/A
$1,899
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.8 million

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This set of markets tracks the performance of TSA airport screenings over a specific week, offering various thresholds for potential outcomes. Each market represents a different benchmark for the average number of screenings, allowing participants to speculate on whether the actual average will surpass these levels.

Kalshi

Each market resolves based on whether the weekly average TSA airport screenings for the week ending August 02, 2026, exceed a specified threshold, as reported by the TSA. All markets share identical expiration and trading timelines: contracts expire at the earlier of 9:00 AM following the data release for August 02, 2026, or one week after that date, with the last trading day and time fixed at 11:59 PM on August 02, 2026. The resolution for each market depends solely on whether the reported average meets or exceeds its unique threshold, ranging incrementally from above 1.8 million to above 2.8 million screenings.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the TSA travel volume market tracks real-time odds and price movements for predictions about Transportation Security Administration passenger screening totals. It shows the current top outcome likelihood, historical price trends, and 24-hour volume of $2,356. This view helps traders monitor how market participants price expectations for summer travel activity, with total volume across the group at $10,043.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of travel demand trends. While analysts may incorporate economic indicators and seasonal patterns, traders adjust prices based on real-time data, news, and sentiment. This can lead to divergence — for example, a surge in bookings or a sudden travel alert may shift market probabilities faster than consensus forecasts change.

This market resolves around Aug 3, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official TSA reports for the specified period are published and verified against credible public sources. The final settlement will reflect the actual average daily check-ins from July 27 to August 2, 2026, closing all positions based on that verified figure.

Events that could shift this market include major holidays, unexpected changes in travel advisories, economic announcements affecting consumer spending, or widespread disruptions such as weather or health issues. Any data showing shifts in booking trends or airline capacity updates may also cause traders to reprice odds as the resolution date approaches.