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Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?
polymarket

Trump x Greenland deal signed by...?

Volume:
$1,091,040

December 31

 - Polymarket

December 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 22, 2026

Closed: Sep 22, 1:49 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$479,949
N/A
N/A
N/A
3mo 3d
Yes
polymarket

September 23

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$355,913
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 25

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$255,178
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 3

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources. Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland. This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered. Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if both Denmark and the United States sign a deal, treaty, or similar international agreement of any kind relating to Greenland by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any U.S.–Danish agreement relating to Greenland will qualify, regardless of subject matter, including but not limited to sovereignty, governance, security arrangements, or access to natural resources. Examples of qualifying deals include but are not limited to a treaty that makes any portion of Greenland a U.S. territory or possession (even if the handover date for such territory or possession is later); or, a Guantánamo-style arrangement treaty establishing a defined zone in Greenland under exclusive or primary U.S. jurisdiction and control, where Denmark and Greenland’s ordinary legal authority does not apply except by U.S. permission; or agreements permitting additional U.S. troop stationing, basing access, or resource extraction rights in Greenland. This market will resolve to “Yes” only if a qualifying agreement is formally signed by authorized representatives of both Denmark and the United States. Official announcements, statements of intent, or declarations that an agreement has been reached will not suffice unless accompanied by signatures from both sides. Whether or not a qualifying deal is later passed by the respective parliaments or enters into force will not affect this market’s resolution. Signaling from Greenland’s population will not be considered. Announcements, negotiations, proposals, frameworks, or understandings that are not formally signed by both parties will not qualify. Any qualifying U.S. jurisdiction, control, basing rights, or access arrangements in Greenland that existed at market creation will not count as new qualifying agreements. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Denmark; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Greenland deal market tracks the current odds of a deal being signed, the price history of the market, and the 24-hour trading volume. Currently, volume stands at $335,186, with a total volume of $1,091,040 traded to date. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the probability of this geopolitical event occurring. This allows users to quickly assess market sentiment and track changes in expectations over time, all focused on this specific outcome.

Currently, prediction market participants assign a high probability to a deal being signed, as reflected in the odds on Polymarket. This contrasts with traditional polling data, which often struggles to accurately gauge the likelihood of complex geopolitical events. While polls can capture public opinion, this market reflects what traders are willing to wager on the actual outcome. It’s important to remember that prediction markets incentivize accurate forecasting, as participants profit from correctly predicting the event's resolution, while polls rely on stated intentions which may not translate to reality.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price indicates a strong expectation that a deal will be signed, with traders actively adjusting their positions based on new information and developments. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the deal, driven by the collective intelligence of market participants.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will resolve based on whether a formal, legally binding agreement between the United States and Greenland regarding a potential deal is publicly announced and signed by the specified date. The resolution will be determined by examining official government statements, press releases, and documented agreements to establish whether a deal has been finalized. No specific source is used; the outcome is verified against credible public sources.

Several factors could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from the US or Greenlandic governments regarding the negotiations, or a lack thereof, would be a key driver. Major political shifts within either country, such as changes in leadership or policy priorities, could also influence the market. Unexpected economic developments affecting either nation, or a significant change in public opinion within Greenland, could shift trader sentiment. Finally, any credible reports of breakthroughs or roadblocks in the negotiations would likely cause fluctuations in the price of shares in this market.