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501,518

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Science and Technology
Trump Truth Social posts this week? (9/27-10/3)
limitless
kalshi

Will Trump post on Truth Social this week?

140-159

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Closed: Oct 4, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

140-159

View
100%
40%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30,342
N/A
N/A
$15,983
Settled
Yes
limitless

140-159

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

80-99

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,445
N/A
N/A
$9,715
Settled
No
limitless

80-99

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

>240

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,494
N/A
N/A
$16,051
Settled
No
limitless

>240

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

100-119

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$28,357
N/A
N/A
$10,753
Settled
No
limitless

100-119

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

120-139

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$27,946
N/A
N/A
$14,482
Settled
No
limitless

120-139

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

160-179

View
0%
28%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$25,448
N/A
N/A
$11,491
Settled
No
limitless

160-179

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

180-199

View
0%
13%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,409
N/A
N/A
$12,617
Settled
No
limitless

180-199

View
0%
15%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

200-219

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$21,402
N/A
N/A
$11,174
Settled
No
limitless

200-219

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

<80

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,136
N/A
N/A
$9,093
Settled
No
limitless

<80

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

220-240

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,316
N/A
N/A
$8,809
Settled
No
limitless

220-240

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 20

Description

This event group asks whether Donald Trump will post a certain number of times on Truth Social during the week of September 27th to October 3rd, 2026. The markets are based on a count of posts, including Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths, as recorded by Roll Call.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define the resolution criteria based on the number of Truth Social posts within specific ranges during the same timeframe, using Roll Call as the primary source.Primary resolution logic: Roll Call

Core resolution logic:

  • The number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from September 27, 2026, to October 3, 2026, will be counted.
  • Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count.
  • Replies included if captured by Roll Call.
  • Posts deleted as of the Expiration Time are not counted.
  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if the post count falls within any of the defined ranges (below 80, 80-99, 100-119, 120-139, 140-159, 160-179, 180-199, 200-219, or above 240).

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Roll Call Data Issues: If Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, Kalshi reserves the right to use alternative sources at their discretion.
Timing: The post count will be recorded at 10:00 AM ET on October 4, 2026.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the total number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between 12:00 AM ET on September 27, 2026, and 11:59 PM ET on October 3, 2026. Roll Call serves as the primary source for verifying post counts, with alternative sources permitted if Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate. Counts are finalized at 10:00 AM ET on October 4, 2026. All post types—including Truths, ReTruths, Quote Truths, and Replies—are counted unless deleted by the expiration time. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical range of posts, with "Between" definitions inclusive of both bounds, and resolution hinges on whether the actual count falls within the respective range for each market.

Limitless

If the number of Truth Social posts by Donald Trump from Sep 27, 2026 to Oct 3, 2026 is below 80, then the market resolves to Yes. How this is resolved The observation period begins at 12:00 AM ET on Sep 27, 2026 and ends at 11:59 PM ET on Oct 3, 2026. The primary resolution source for this market is Roll Call. In the event that Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate, alternative sources may be used at Kalshi's discretion. The post count will be recorded at 10:00 AM ET on Oct 4, 2026. Payout criteria Truths, ReTruths, and Quote Truths are included in the total count. Replies are included if captured by Roll Call. "Between" is inclusive of the lower and upper bound. Doesn’t count for payout: Posts deleted as of the Expiration Time. Outcome verified from Roll Call.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen. This difference can be significant, as betting involves real financial stakes, potentially leading to more accurate forecasts. While polling may indicate general sentiment, the price action in this market provides a real-time assessment of the probability of different outcomes regarding Trump's Truth Social activity. It’s a valuable signal, distinct from and sometimes more predictive than, traditional surveys.

Kalshi and Limitless can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Price discrepancies between Kalshi and Limitless on the Trump Truth Social market can occur due to several factors. Differences in trader demographics, liquidity, and market-making activity can all contribute to varying prices. Kalshi and Limitless have distinct user bases with potentially different beliefs about Trump's posting habits. Furthermore, the volume of trading on each platform – Kalshi has a volume of $249,341 – influences price discovery. Even slight variations in order flow can lead to noticeable price spreads, reflecting the differing expectations and trading strategies employed on each platform.