TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
polymarket

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Volume:
$402,435

July 15

 - Polymarket

July 15 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 10, 2026

Closed: Jul 14, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

July 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.5¢
N/A
$159,720
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$125,992
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

July 7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40,937
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,702
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,465
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 22

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,619
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump UFO declassification market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity around whether former President Trump will declassify new UFO files by a specified deadline. The interface displays the current probability implied by trader positions, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume. This market aggregates the collective forecast of participants betting on the timing and likelihood of such a declassification event, offering a live snapshot of market sentiment on this geopolitical and transparency-focused question.

Prediction markets and traditional polls measure different things: polls typically gauge public opinion or expert expectations at a single moment, while this market reflects real-money incentives for accuracy over time. Traders in prediction markets face financial consequences for wrong forecasts, often making odds more dynamic and responsive to breaking news than static poll snapshots. Comparing the implied probability here to any available expert consensus or historical precedent can reveal whether the market is pricing in optimism or skepticism relative to conventional wisdom about declassification timelines.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader buy and sell orders into real-time probability quotes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Participants purchase shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes, and the price of each share reflects the collective assessment of likelihood. As more capital flows into one side, the price adjusts accordingly, creating a continuous, transparent signal of market conviction about whether new UFO file declassification will occur by the deadline.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, at which point the outcome is confirmed based on verifiable public reporting and credible sources documenting whether new UFO files have been declassified. The resolution hinges on whether the specified declassification event has occurred by that date. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout once the event status is established and the market is officially settled.

Key catalysts include official statements from Trump or his administration about declassification plans, congressional pressure or legislation demanding UFO transparency, media reports on classified UFO materials, and any executive orders or policy announcements. Developments in broader geopolitical tensions, shifts in public interest in UFO disclosure, and proximity to the resolution deadline itself can all shift trader sentiment. Each of these signals may prompt repricing as participants update their forecasts on the likelihood of declassification occurring within the specified timeframe.