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Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?
polymarket

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

Volume:
$644,803

June 15

 - Polymarket

June 15 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$344,301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.4¢
N/A
$158,072
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 22

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$29,996
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$112,433
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 4

Intro

This market tracks whether the Trump administration will declassify previously unreleased government files related to extraterrestrial life or unexplained aerial phenomena. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that such declassifications occur by June 22—stands at 99.9%. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. government sources or credible reporting consensus, with only declassifications actually implemented by the specified deadline counting toward resolution. Watch for any official announcements from the Executive Office of the President or executive branch agencies regarding UFO-related file releases before the 11:59 PM ET cutoff on June 22.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market's timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the Trump declassification event on Polymarket. It displays the current probability that Trump will declassify new UFO files by the deadline, updated continuously as traders buy and sell shares. You can monitor 24-hour volume of $169,904 and total event volume of $630,732 to gauge market interest and liquidity. The dashboard also shows price history, allowing you to see how market sentiment has shifted over time as new information emerges about potential declassification timelines and Trump administration policy signals.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined based on whether Trump has declassified new UFO files by that date. Resolution hinges on verifiable declassification of previously classified UFO-related documents through official government channels, executive order, or public release by authorized agencies. The event requires tangible evidence of new material becoming available to the public, not merely announcements of intent or ongoing review processes. Traders should monitor official statements from the White House, Department of Defense, and intelligence agencies as the deadline approaches to assess the likelihood of resolution in either direction.

Key catalysts include executive orders or directives from Trump ordering declassification reviews, statements from Pentagon or intelligence officials about UFO transparency timelines, congressional hearings or legislation demanding disclosure, and media reports on classified UFO incidents. Public pressure from UFO advocacy groups or bipartisan congressional interest could accelerate declassification. Conversely, national security concerns raised by intelligence agencies or delays in review processes could reduce market odds. Any official announcement regarding new UFO file releases would immediately move prices. Additionally, Trump's broader stance on government transparency and his relationship with intelligence agencies will influence trader expectations about whether declassification actually occurs by the deadline.