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Trump approval Up or Down this week?
kalshi
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Volume:
$7,049

Above 38.8%

 - Kalshi

Above 38.8% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 12, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 38.8%

View
0%
18%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,009
N/A
N/A
$5,758
Settled
No
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

View
0%
46%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group asks whether Donald Trump's approval rating will be higher or lower at a specific point in time compared to a prior point in time. The markets use different sources and criteria for determining the approval rating, leading to potential discrepancies in resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets utilize different approval rating sources (Silver Bulletin vs. VoteHub) and different resolution criteria (relative change vs. absolute threshold).Hero tip: Understand that the Kalshi market is a simple threshold check, while the Polymarket market depends on the *change* in the Silver Bulletin rating. Diversify your positions if you believe both sources will indicate similar trends.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves based on the change in Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating between September 4th and September 11th, 2026. A tie results in a 50-50 resolution. Uses RealClearPolitics as a fallback if Silver Bulletin is unavailable.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average exceeds 38.8% at 10:00 AM ET on September 11, 2026. No tie-breaking or fallback source is specified.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 11, 2026, than on September 4, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on September 11, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 38.8% at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 11, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of opinion at a specific moment, prediction markets represent a continuous assessment of probabilities, incorporating a wider range of information and incentives. Traders are incentivized to be accurate, leading to a potentially more refined forecast. Differences can arise due to factors like poll weighting, methodology, and the inclusion of informed traders who may have access to data not reflected in public polls. This market provides a real-time, aggregated forecast based on financial incentives.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market. Major economic announcements, geopolitical events, and any legal developments involving the former president could all shift trader sentiment. Unexpected policy statements or significant shifts in media coverage could also play a role. Furthermore, any major political endorsements or controversies could influence public opinion and, consequently, the market price. Traders should closely monitor these factors and adjust their positions accordingly as new information becomes available. The market will react to any event that alters perceptions of the former president’s public standing.