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399,592

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2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Trump approval Up or Down this week?
kalshi
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Volume:
$60,346

Above 38.6%

 - Kalshi

Above 38.6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 5, 2026

Closed: Sep 4, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 38.6%

View
100%
33%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$59,611
N/A
N/A
$18,279
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

View
100%
32%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
5¢
N/A
$735
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group determines whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down between August 28, 2026, and September 4, 2026, based on different polling sources and criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use different polling sources (VoteHub vs Silver Bulletin) and different resolution criteria (absolute threshold vs relative change).Hero tip: Trade based on which market aligns with your view. Polymarket uses relative change, Kalshi uses an absolute threshold. Monitor both sources for potential discrepancies.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if Silver Bulletin's approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on August 28, 2026. Resolves to "Down" if lower. 50-50 if same. Uses Silver Bulletin's poll aggregator.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if VoteHub approval polling average is above 38.6% at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 4, 2026. Uses VoteHub as the source.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 4, 2026, than on August 28, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 28, 2026, than on September 4, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 38.6% at 10:00 AM ET on Sep 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Trump approval trend market shows real-time odds and volume from multiple prediction venues. It aggregates data across platforms so you can see how traders price movements in public sentiment week over week. This view lets you compare consensus expectations against polling trends and spot shifts in market sentiment as new information emerges.

On Polymarket, odds reflect trader expectations about polling averages shifting by week’s end. These odds often move faster than polls because they incorporate news, events, and betting sentiment in real time. While polls provide a snapshot of public opinion, this market prices in anticipated changes, sometimes showing divergence from current polling data and offering an early indicator of sentiment swings.

Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi can stem from varying user bases, liquidity levels, and trading activity. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform’s unique market design and participant behavior may also lead to temporary mispricings. For example, one venue might see heavier betting after a news event, shifting its odds ahead of the other. Monitoring both gives a fuller picture of market expectations.

Key events such as major news headlines, economic reports, public statements, or polling releases can shift this market. Anything that influences voter perception or media coverage may cause rapid price changes. Traders often react to early indicators before polls update, so staying alert to political developments helps anticipate market moves as resolution approaches.