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406,019

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2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

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Trump approval Up or Down this week?
kalshi
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Volume:
$14,382

Above 38.7%

 - Kalshi

Above 38.7% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 23, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 38.7%

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,959
N/A
N/A
$4,221
Settled
No
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

View
0%
54%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group determines whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down between August 14, 2026, and August 21, 2026, based on two different polling sources and criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Different polling sources and resolution criteria create potential for conflicting outcomesHero tip: Monitor both VoteHub and Silver Bulletin ratings daily. Trade cautiously due to differing thresholds and sources.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if VoteHub approval polling average is above 38.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 21, 2026
  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if Silver Bulletin's approval rating is higher on August 21, 2026, than on August 14, 2026
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 21, 2026, than on August 14, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on August 14, 2026, than on August 21, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 38.7% at 10:00 AM ET on Aug 21, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.