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Trump approval Up or Down this week?
kalshi
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Volume:
$5,922

Above 39.5%

 - Kalshi

Above 39.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 39.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,717
N/A
N/A
$3,902
Settled
No
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$204
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group determines whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down over a specific week. The outcome depends on comparing approval ratings from two different sources on specified dates.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamentally different resolution criteria between platforms (different sources, thresholds, and comparison logic)Hero tip: Traders should be cautious due to fundamentally different resolution criteria between platforms. Consider hedging positions if trading on both markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Compares Silver Bulletin's approval rating between July 24 and July 31, 2026, resolving to Up, Down, or 50-50 based on the comparison. Uses https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin as the source.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if VoteHub's approval polling average is above 39.5% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 31, 2026.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 31, 2026, than on July 24, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 24, 2026, than on July 31, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

If Donald Trump's VoteHub approval polling average is above 39.5% at 10:00 AM ET on Jul 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.