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Trump approval Up or Down this week?
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Volume:
$1,012

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

 - Polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week? - Polymarket

1W

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Resolved Jul 18, 2026

Closed: Jul 17, 7:59 PM EST

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Trump approval Up or Down this week?

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0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,012
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 17, 2026, than on July 10, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 10, 2026, than on July 17, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 17, 2026, than on July 10, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on July 10, 2026, than on July 17, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump approval rating market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether Trump's approval rating will move up or down during the specified week. Traders buy and sell shares representing each outcome, with the current price reflecting the collective forecast of market participants. The dashboard displays the live odds for both directions, historical price movements, and total trading volume to help you monitor sentiment shifts and market depth as new information emerges.

Prediction market odds and traditional polling often diverge because they measure different things. Polls capture a snapshot of current public opinion at a single moment, while this market aggregates traders' forward-looking expectations about the week ahead. Market participants incorporate polling data, recent news, and their own analysis into their bets, sometimes pricing in anticipated shifts before polls are updated. This makes prediction markets useful as a complementary signal to polls rather than a replacement for them.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that converts trader activity into real-time odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Shares representing each outcome trade continuously, and the price of each share reflects the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As traders buy or sell shares, the price adjusts automatically, ensuring the market stays responsive to new information and sentiment changes throughout the week.

This market resolves around Jul 17, 2026, at which point the outcome is determined by whether Trump's approval rating moved up or down during the specified week. The result will be verified against credible public sources reporting on approval metrics. Once the week concludes and the direction of movement is confirmed, the market settles and winning shares are paid out accordingly.

Major political announcements, legislative developments, economic data releases, and media coverage can all shift approval ratings and influence trader expectations in this market. Breaking news about policy decisions, public statements, or significant events may prompt rapid repricing as participants reassess the likelihood of an upward or downward movement. Additionally, new polling releases or shifts in public sentiment during the week can trigger substantial trading activity and price adjustments as the market incorporates fresh information.