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399,592

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2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

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VS.

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Trump approval Up or Down this week?
polymarket
kalshi

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

Volume:
$167,893

40.2 to 40.4

 - Kalshi

40.2 to 40.4 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 11:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

40.2 to 40.4

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$24,790
N/A
N/A
$10,759
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Below 39.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,770
N/A
N/A
$26,908
Settled
No
kalshi

39.9 to 40.1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25,756
N/A
N/A
$13,756
Settled
No
kalshi

40.5 to 40.7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$18,320
N/A
N/A
$7,474
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 40.7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$16,281
N/A
N/A
$7,590
Settled
No
kalshi

39.0 to 39.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,816
N/A
N/A
$11,323
Settled
No
kalshi

39.6 to 39.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,078
N/A
N/A
$7,917
Settled
No
kalshi

39.3 to 39.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,580
N/A
N/A
$8,893
Settled
No
polymarket

Trump approval Up or Down this week?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets assess whether Donald Trump's approval rating moves up or down during a specific week (June 5–12, 2026). Polymarket uses Silver Bulletin's green trend line as the primary source, while Kalshi uses RealClearPolitics snapshots. Both measure directional change or specific approval thresholds on June 12, 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct market architectures: Polymarket resolves on directional change between two dates using Silver Bulletin; Kalshi resolves on approval landing in specific percentage bands on a single date using RealClearPolitics. Source mismatch and structural incompatibility prevent unified resolution.Hero tip: Treat these as separate markets with different payoff structures. Polymarket is a directional bet (Up/Down/Tie); Kalshi is a band-matching bet (Yes/No). Confirm RealClearPolitics band coverage is complete (no gaps between 39.0% and 40.7%+) before assuming Kalshi's Yes outcome is certain. Use Silver Bulletin as your primary source if you believe it is more accurate than RealClearPolitics.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Directional change market. Compares Silver Bulletin approval rating on June 5, 2026 (baseline) to June 12, 2026 (settlement date). Resolves Up (June 12 > June 5), Down (June 5 > June 12), or 50-50 (tie). Uses one-decimal precision. Fallback to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes unavailable. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Up if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on June 12, 2026, than on June 5, 2026.'
  • Kalshi: Band-matching market. Resolves Yes if approval rating at 11:00 AM ET on June 12, 2026 (RealClearPolitics) falls into any of 8 predefined ranges: below 39.0%, 39.0–39.2%, 39.3–39.5%, 39.6–39.8%, 39.9–40.1%, 40.2–40.4%, 40.5–40.7%, or above 40.7%. Resolves No otherwise. Quote: 'If the President's approval rating is between 39.3 and 39.5% at 11:00 AM ET on June 12, 2026 according to RealClearPolitics, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on June 12, 2026, than on June 5, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on June 5, 2026, than on June 12, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the President's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolitics at 11:00 AM ET on June 12, 2026. Each outcome corresponds to a specific approval rating range: below 39.0%, 39.0-39.2%, 39.3-39.5%, 39.6-39.8%, 39.9-40.1%, 40.2-40.4%, 40.5-40.7%, or above 40.7%. The determination occurs at the specified time on the specified date using RealClearPolitics as the official source.

Frequently asked questions

The Trump approval Up or Down this week dashboard aggregates real-time odds across Polymarket and Kalshi, two leading prediction markets. It displays the consensus probability that Trump's approval rating will move up or down within the specified week, pulling live pricing data from both platforms. This cross-platform view lets traders and analysts compare how different markets price the same event, identify arbitrage opportunities, and track whether the crowd expects approval to rise or fall. The dashboard updates continuously, reflecting new trades, news flow, and shifts in trader sentiment across both venues simultaneously.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Kalshi and Polymarket serve different trader bases, use distinct liquidity pools, and may interpret approval metrics differently. Kalshi's top outcome focuses on a narrow approval band according to RealClearPolitics, while Polymarket tracks a broader directional move. This structural difference alone can create price gaps. Additionally, each platform attracts traders with varying risk appetites, time horizons, and information sets. Regulatory environment, fee structures, and user interface design also influence order flow and pricing. Arbitrageurs work to close spreads, but temporary divergences persist, especially in lower-liquidity markets or during volatile news cycles.

Major catalysts include economic data releases, employment reports, geopolitical developments, legislative victories or defeats, and media coverage of Trump's statements or actions. Market-moving events such as interest rate decisions, inflation reports, or international crises can shift public sentiment rapidly. Approval can also swing on court rulings, scandals, or major policy announcements. Weekly polling releases and real-time sentiment tracking on social media provide early signals traders monitor. Traders on Polymarket and Kalshi price in expectations of these events before they occur, so odds may shift sharply if unexpected news breaks or if scheduled data surprises consensus. Monitoring news flow and economic calendars is essential for predicting approval direction.