TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 4, 11:00 PM EST
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on June 5, 2026, than on May 29, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on May 29, 2026, than on June 5, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the Trump approval Up or Down this week market uses an automated market maker model where prices reflect the probability of each outcome. Traders buy and sell shares representing approval moving up or down, with the combined price of all outcomes equaling one dollar. As traders place orders, the price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand. The current odds reflect the collective assessment of Polymarket participants regarding whether Trump's approval will increase or decrease by the resolution date, with higher prices indicating greater confidence in that outcome.
The Trump approval Up or Down this week market resolves on Jun 5, 2026. Resolution depends on comparing Trump's approval rating at the end of the week to its level at the market's start, determining whether the net movement was upward or downward. The specific data source and methodology used to measure approval are established in the market's resolution criteria. Traders should review the official market terms to understand exactly which approval metric and timing window govern the final outcome determination.
Several catalysts could shift Trump approval this week. Major policy announcements, executive orders, or legislative developments often trigger immediate approval swings. Economic data releases, employment reports, or market movements may influence public sentiment. Breaking news, international events, or statements from political figures can reshape voter perception rapidly. Media coverage intensity and narrative framing also affect approval trajectories. Social media trends and public reactions to Trump's communications may accelerate momentum in either direction. Traders should monitor news cycles, scheduled economic releases, and political calendars closely, as approval movements can be volatile and reactive to real-time developments.