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405,232

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2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Trump approval rating on September 18?
polymarket

Trump approval rating on September 18?

Volume:
$6,949

38.5–38.9

 - Polymarket

38.5–38.9 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 19, 2026

Closed: Sep 19, 9:08 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

38.5–38.9

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$2,617
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

38.0–38.4

View
0%
79%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,929
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37.5–37.9

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$893
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39.0+

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$750
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

37.0–37.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$413
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<37.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on September 18, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on September 18, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Trump approval rating market tracks the current implied probability of various approval rating ranges on Sep 18, 2026. You can view the odds for different outcomes, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $1,726. The total volume traded in this market is $6,949. The dashboard provides a visual representation of how traders are pricing the likelihood of different scenarios for former President Trump's approval rating at a specific point in the future.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment, this market represents a forward-looking assessment of what traders believe will be the approval rating on Sep 18, 2026. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like differing methodologies, the inclusion of informed traders in the market, and the ability to continuously update expectations as new information becomes available. It's common to see this market adjust more quickly to changing circumstances than polls.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous matching of buy and sell orders. Traders post bids for the price they are willing to buy a share of a particular outcome, and offers for the price they are willing to sell. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the collective judgment of all participants, constantly adjusting as new information and sentiment emerge. The more volume traded in a particular outcome, the more confident traders are in its likelihood, and the closer the price will move to 100 (or 0 for unlikely outcomes).

This market resolves around Sep 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available, widely recognized source for presidential approval ratings. The specific approval rating reported by that source on the resolution date will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome and their positions in this market.

Several factors could significantly impact this market before Sep 18, 2026. Major political events, such as significant legislative actions, economic shifts, or unforeseen international crises, could all influence public opinion and, consequently, the market price. Any news related to former President Trump, including legal developments, public appearances, or statements, could also cause substantial movement. Unexpected shifts in major economic indicators or polling data could also prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust the odds in this market.