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$134.1b

24H VOL:

$133,388,117

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,436,095,462

405,232

Markets across

30,526

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,693

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Trump approval rating on June 12?
polymarket
kalshi

Trump approval rating on June 12?

Volume:
$284,706

40.5 to 40.7

 - Kalshi

40.5 to 40.7 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 19, 11:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

40.5 to 40.7

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$47,817
N/A
N/A
$13,351
Settled
Yes
polymarket

38.5–38.9

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.8¢
N/A
$3,096
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Below 39.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$83,094
N/A
N/A
$58,221
Settled
No
polymarket

<38.0

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,943
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 40.7

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$36,784
N/A
N/A
$14,993
Settled
No
polymarket

40.0+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$888
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

40.2 to 40.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$24,419
N/A
N/A
$10,260
Settled
No
kalshi

39.0 to 39.2

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$21,624
N/A
N/A
$13,981
Settled
No
kalshi

39.3 to 39.5

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$20,323
N/A
N/A
$11,202
Settled
No
kalshi

39.6 to 39.8

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$19,461
N/A
N/A
$10,563
Settled
No
kalshi

39.9 to 40.1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,344
N/A
N/A
$8,544
Settled
No
polymarket

38.0–38.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,530
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39.0–39.4

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,155
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

39.5–39.9

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,227
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

This event group tracks Donald Trump's approval rating on specific dates in June 2026 across two prediction platforms. Polymarket focuses on June 12, 2026 using Silver Bulletin as the primary source, while Kalshi focuses on June 19, 2026 using RealClearPolitics. Both platforms segment the approval rating into discrete ranges to create binary outcome markets.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Two distinct settlement dates (June 12 vs June 19, 2026) and two different primary resolution sources (Silver Bulletin vs RealClearPolitics) create separate, non-comparable event groups. Approval ratings may diverge between sources and over the 7-day period.Hero tip: Treat Polymarket (June 12, Silver Bulletin) and Kalshi (June 19, RealClearPolitics) as independent markets. Do not assume June 12 outcomes predict June 19 outcomes. Monitor both data sources separately and watch for Silver Bulletin availability—if it fails, Polymarket falls back to RealClearPolitics, potentially creating source alignment but not date alignment.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves June 12, 2026 using Silver Bulletin's green trend line approval rating to one decimal place. Finalization occurs once the next data point is available. Fallback to RealClearPolitics if Silver Bulletin becomes permanently unavailable. Markets segment approval into ranges: <38.0%, 38.0-38.4%, 38.5-38.9%, 39.0-39.4%, 39.5-39.9%, >=40.0%.
  • Kalshi: Resolves June 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET using RealClearPolitics approval rating snapshot. Markets cover all possible approval ranges: <39.0%, 39.0-39.2%, 39.3-39.5%, 39.6-39.8%, 39.9-40.1%, 40.2-40.4%, 40.5-40.7%, >40.7%. Each range resolves to Yes if the rating falls within it.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Silver Bulletin's approval rating for Donald Trump on June 12, 2026. Note that the approval ratings for this date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next data point is available, the previous one is finalized). This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Kalshi

On June 19, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, the President's approval rating will be determined using the RealClearPolitics aggregate. The rating will be measured in increments spanning from below 39.0% through above 40.7%. Each market outcome corresponds to a specific approval rating range or threshold, with resolution determined by which range the RealClearPolitics figure falls within at the specified time. The measurement uses the official RealClearPolitics approval rating aggregate as the authoritative source for resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction markets like these embed real-money incentives that often reward accuracy over sentiment, potentially offering a different read than traditional polling. Traders here are betting on specific approval ranges verified by credible public sources, not just surveying opinion at a single moment. Market prices reflect forward-looking expectations and incorporate breaking news faster than most polls update. While polls measure current sentiment, this market prices the probability of a particular approval level materializing by mid-June 2026, making them complementary rather than redundant signals for tracking executive approval trends.

Major political announcements, legislative victories or defeats, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments can all shift approval expectations before June 2026. Unexpected scandals or crises typically move approval sharply, while routine policy announcements may have muted effects. Seasonal patterns and midterm election dynamics could also influence the trajectory. Real-time polling releases and media narratives will likely drive intraday volatility. Traders monitoring this market should watch for breaking news, Fed decisions, and approval trend lines from established polling aggregators to anticipate directional moves.