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Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?
opinion

Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by ...?

Volume:
$1,174,340

June 30, 2026

 - Opinion

June 30, 2026 - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 1, 2026

Closed: Jul 1, 6:03 AM EST

opinion

Opinion

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

June 30, 2026

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

March 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,165,604
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,550
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

April 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$154
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

March 7, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
opinion

March 2, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Opinion

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the military publicly and officially announce that their military operations against Iran, initiated on February 28, 2026, have concluded by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying statements must clearly indicate that the operation has ended. Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources or leaks will not qualify. Written public statements from Donald Trump (e.g. posts from his personal Truth Social account), will count. Videos posted on his social media accounts will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the US government and/or its official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Opinion, the Trump Iran military operations market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements for when a Trump administration announcement ending military operations against Iran might occur. The interface shows current trader sentiment, 24-hour volume of $0, and cumulative trading activity across this prediction market. Traders use the dashboard to monitor how odds shift as geopolitical developments unfold, giving a live snapshot of crowd expectations around this significant foreign policy event.

Prediction markets and traditional polls measure different things: polls capture stated public opinion at a single moment, while this market reflects traders' financial commitments to specific outcomes. Market participants often incorporate private information, expert analysis, and real-time developments faster than polling cycles can update. Comparing the two reveals whether crowds betting real money on this event are more or less confident than survey respondents, offering complementary perspectives on how likely an announcement is perceived to be.

This market resolves around Mar 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution hinges on whether a Trump administration official makes a formal announcement ending military operations against Iran before that deadline. The specific date of such an announcement—or confirmation that no announcement occurred by the deadline—determines which outcome traders' shares settle to, concluding the prediction period.

Major catalysts include direct statements from Trump or senior administration officials, escalations or de-escalations in U.S.–Iran tensions, military incidents in the region, diplomatic negotiations, congressional actions, or international developments affecting Middle East policy. Media reports of policy reviews or strategic shifts could also shift trader expectations. Additionally, statements from allies, Iranian responses, or changes in regional stability may prompt rapid repricing as participants reassess the likelihood and timing of an official announcement.