TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Treasury 10-year yield on Feb 20, 2026?
kalshi

Treasury 10-year yield on Feb 20, 2026?

Volume:
$19,110

4.06% to 4.08%

 - Kalshi

4.06% to 4.08% - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 20, 2026

Will the yield of 10-year U.S. treasury notes be between 4.06 and 4.08 on Feb 20, 2026?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 100¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.06% to 4.08%

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,404
0%
0%
$3,528
N/A
kalshi

4.03% to 4.05%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,219
0%
0%
$1,673
N/A
kalshi

4.09% to 4.11%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,070
0%
0%
$2,621
N/A
kalshi

4% to 4.02%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,365
0%
0%
$638
N/A
kalshi

4.12% to 4.14%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,485
0%
0%
$663
N/A
kalshi

3.91% to 3.93%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$166
0%
0%
$136
N/A
kalshi

4.24% to 4.26%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$130
0%
0%
$120
N/A
kalshi

3.9% or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$93
0%
0%
$93
N/A
kalshi

3.94% to 3.96%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83
0%
0%
$83
N/A
kalshi

3.97% to 3.99%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$64
0%
0%
$64
N/A
kalshi

4.15% to 4.17%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31
0%
0%
$20
N/A
kalshi

4.21% to 4.23%

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

4.3% or above

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

4.18% to 4.2%

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
kalshi

4.27% to 4.29%

N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Total markets: 15

Description

This event predicts the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. Treasury notes on February 20, 2026, across a wide range of possible outcomes. The market resolves to Yes if the rate falls within any of multiple specified bands or thresholds, essentially covering nearly all realistic scenarios for where long-term Treasury yields might settle on that date. This reflects expectations about U.S. interest rates and economic conditions roughly two years in the future.