TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$129,159,707

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,442,132,418

404,744

Markets across

30,489

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,691

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Financials
Treasury 10-year yield on Feb 16, 2026?
kalshi

Treasury 10-year yield on Feb 16, 2026?

Volume:
$5,408

4.03% to 4.05%

 - Kalshi

4.03% to 4.05% - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Feb 26, 2026

Closed: Feb 16, 3:25 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

4.03% to 4.05%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3,518
$2,100
N/A
N/A
$1,753
Settled
No
kalshi

4.06% to 4.08%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
-$481
$1,886
N/A
N/A
$1,236
Settled
No
kalshi

4.3% or above

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$4,977
$453
N/A
N/A
$453
Settled
No
kalshi

4% to 4.02%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
$3,936
$419
N/A
N/A
$412
Settled
No
kalshi

3.9% or below

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
-$1,978
$202
N/A
N/A
$202
Settled
No
kalshi

3.91% to 3.93%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
-$2,084
$170
N/A
N/A
$168
Settled
No
kalshi

4.09% to 4.11%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
-$1,680
$138
N/A
N/A
$96
Settled
No
kalshi

3.97% to 3.99%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
-$3,240
$39
N/A
N/A
$39
Settled
No
kalshi

3.94% to 3.96%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
-$2,608
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
kalshi

4.21% to 4.23%

N/A
N/A
—
-$3,139
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.12% to 4.14%

N/A
N/A
—
-$2,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.15% to 4.17%

N/A
N/A
—
-$614
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.18% to 4.2%

N/A
N/A
—
-$185
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.24% to 4.26%

N/A
N/A
—
-$4,502
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

4.27% to 4.29%

N/A
N/A
—
-$4,798
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

This market predicts the yield curve par rate for 10-year U.S. Treasury notes on February 16, 2026, effectively betting on the direction and level of long-term U.S. interest rates at a specific future date. The outcome depends on where Treasury yields settle on that date, with the resolution reflecting actual market conditions and Federal Reserve policy at that time.