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Traffic through the Suez Canal? (8/31 - 9/6)
kalshi

What is the traffic level through the Suez Canal?

Volume:
$2,425

Above 280

 - Kalshi

Above 280 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 9, 2026

Closed: Sep 8, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 280

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$959
N/A
N/A
$959
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 290

View
100%
24%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$780
N/A
N/A
$556
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 300

View
0%
26%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
$517
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 260

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 270

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks maritime activity by monitoring vessel movements through the Suez Canal over a specific week. It reflects how analysts and stakeholders gauge economic health, shipping demand, and geopolitical stability through observable traffic data. The outcome depends on whether the total number of recorded transits meets or exceeds various thresholds.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the total number of transit calls through the Suez Canal, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds specified thresholds during the period from August 31, 2026, to September 6, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold—ranging from above 260 to above 300 transits—and resolves to 'Yes' if the cumulative daily count meets or surpasses its respective threshold. All markets share a consistent methodology: the total is derived by summing daily transit counts across the six-day window. Resolution for all markets occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring all data is fully reported and verified before any outcome is finalized.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the real-time odds and price movements for the Suez Canal traffic market, alongside 24-hour volume of $395. It provides a visual history of how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different traffic levels through the canal during the specified period. The chart reflects collective trader sentiment and can be used to compare expectations against other analytical forecasts or news-driven predictions about shipping activity, geopolitical tensions, or operational disruptions influencing passage rates.

Unlike traditional polling averages that gather public opinion, this market uses trader activity to set its odds. Currently, the implied probability reflects collective betting behavior rather than survey responses. While polls may offer insights into public expectations, this market often reacts more quickly to geopolitical developments and real-time data, potentially providing a different perspective on likely outcomes.

This market resolves around Sep 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on official traffic data and news sources covering canal transits during the defined window, removing speculation once facts are publicly available.

Key signals include regional geopolitical developments, naval incident reports, or official announcements from canal authorities. Any disruption — whether due to security concerns, environmental issues, or accidental blockages — could quickly shift trader sentiment. Additionally, broader economic factors affecting shipping routes may also influence this market as participants reassess risk profiles.