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2,388,728,490

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400,720

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30,097

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2,633

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5

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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)
kalshi

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (8/17 - 8/23)

Volume:
$108,211

Above 30

 - Kalshi

Above 30 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 30

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30,346
N/A
N/A
$10,630
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 25

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,687
N/A
N/A
$8,595
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 20

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,636
N/A
N/A
$6,670
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,944
N/A
N/A
$8,576
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,052
N/A
N/A
$1,527
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 40

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,562
N/A
N/A
$6,209
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 35

View
0%
60%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,728
N/A
N/A
$4,267
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 45

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,191
N/A
N/A
$2,091
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 50

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,075
N/A
N/A
$2,078
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 75

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,587
N/A
N/A
$3,369
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 100

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,403
N/A
N/A
$702
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event tracks maritime activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical passageway for global oil transport. The resolution depends on whether the total number of vessel transit calls within a specific week meets or exceeds various thresholds. Such data offers insight into economic and geopolitical dynamics influencing shipping patterns.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from August 17 to August 23, 2026, as reported by IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold (e.g., above 10, above 15, up to above 100 calls). For any given market, if the summed daily transit counts for the week meet or exceed its threshold, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same calculation method: daily counts are aggregated over the seven-day period, and resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, ensuring data completeness. The structure allows participants to assess varying levels of traffic intensity within the same timeframe.

Frequently asked questions

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and price trends for this geopolitical event, showing how traders view potential disruptions to shipping through the strait. You can see the current top outcome probability, historical price movements, and 24-hour volume of $21,124. This gives you a snapshot of market sentiment as the event window approaches.

Unlike traditional polls, this market reflects the aggregated bets of traders who may have different incentives and information. While polls capture public opinion on related issues, this market specifically prices in the likelihood of traffic changes through the Strait of Hormuz during the defined period. Traders often react faster to geopolitical developments than pollsters can survey, potentially showing sharper shifts when new information emerges.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Judges will assess whether recorded traffic levels during the specified window show a significant disruption or not, based on authoritative maritime and news sources. The exact determination depends on measurable data about ship passages and any officially reported blockades or conflicts.

Key signals include naval deployment announcements, diplomatic escalations involving regional powers, or sudden incidents like attacks on shipping vessels. Economic sanctions, oil price spikes, or emergency statements from international bodies could also shift trader sentiment. Any development that suggests a higher or lower probability of strait access being impaired will likely cause rapid price adjustments in this market as participants reassess risks.