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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)
kalshi

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (7/27 - 8/2)

Volume:
$118,116

Above 25

 - Kalshi

Above 25 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 25

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8,028
N/A
N/A
$3,068
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 20

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,773
N/A
N/A
$691
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 15

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,148
N/A
N/A
$918
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 70

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$26,095
N/A
N/A
$11,828
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 50

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15,910
N/A
N/A
$6,487
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 65

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12,765
N/A
N/A
$6,497
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 55

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,825
N/A
N/A
$6,698
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$9,378
N/A
N/A
$5,639
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,856
N/A
N/A
$4,145
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 35

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,609
N/A
N/A
$4,242
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 45

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,831
N/A
N/A
$4,366
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 40

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,899
N/A
N/A
$3,155
Settled
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks maritime activity through a critical global waterway during a specific week. It measures whether vessel transit volumes exceed various thresholds, reflecting potential shifts in trade patterns or geopolitical tensions. The outcome depends entirely on recorded shipping data for that period.

Kalshi

All markets in this event evaluate whether the total number of vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as officially reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds specified numerical thresholds between July 27 and August 2, 2026. Each market corresponds to a different threshold value, ranging from 15 to 70 transit calls. The determining factor is the cumulative daily count across the entire six-day period. Regardless of the specific threshold being evaluated, all markets share identical calculation methodology: totals are derived by summing daily transit figures from the start to end date inclusive. Resolution for all markets is contingent upon the availability of complete and verified data, with final determination occurring no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the measurement window. The event design allows participants to assess probability of various traffic volume scenarios through multiple parallel yes/no propositions.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Strait of Hormuz traffic market dashboard tracks real-time odds and price movements for this prediction, along with 24-hour volume of $13,162. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different traffic scenarios through the strait during the specified period, offering a visual snapshot of market sentiment and activity.

Unlike traditional polling averages, which rely on public surveys, this market uses trader sentiment to set its odds. While polls may reflect public opinion on related geopolitical issues, this market specifically focuses on traffic conditions through the strait. Traders may price in factors beyond public sentiment, such as strategic moves or economic indicators, potentially leading to notable differences from polling data.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders actively set the price through buying and selling contracts that represent different possible traffic outcomes. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate expectations of participants, with the market price adjusting dynamically based on new information, trading volume of $118,116, and shifts in trader confidence.

This market resolves around Aug 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on observable traffic data and official announcements regarding movement through the strait during the defined period, ensuring an objective and transparent determination.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. These include naval deployments, diplomatic announcements, or reported disruptions in shipping lanes. Any credible news about altered traffic patterns, security operations, or geopolitical tensions in the region may cause traders to adjust their positions, impacting the market odds as new information emerges.