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Traffic through the Panama Canal? (8/17 - 8/23)
kalshi

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (8/17 - 8/23)

Volume:
$2,025

Above 275

 - Kalshi

Above 275 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 275

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$950
N/A
N/A
$950
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 200

View
0%
77%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$796
N/A
N/A
$518
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 250

View
0%
7%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 225

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$79
N/A
N/A
$79
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 175

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks the volume of ship transits through the Panama Canal over a one-week period. It reflects how busy global shipping routes are during that timeframe, influenced by trade patterns, seasonal factors, and any disruptions to normal operations. The outcome depends on whether the total number of transits meets specific thresholds.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the total number of transit calls through the Panama Canal, as reported by the IMF PortWatch, from August 17, 2026, to August 23, 2026. Five separate outcome thresholds are defined: above 175, above 200, above 225, above 250, and above 275 calls. For any threshold to resolve as 'Yes,' the summed daily transit counts over the full seven-day period must exceed that threshold. All markets share the same calculation method: daily counts are aggregated to produce a single weekly total. Resolution for all outcomes occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring that complete and verified data from IMF PortWatch is available before any market is finalized.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Panama Canal traffic market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $459. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different traffic levels through the Panama Canal during the specified period. The interface updates continuously to reflect market activity and sentiment around this key geopolitical and economic indicator.

Compared to public polling averages, this market often reflects a more nuanced view of expert and investor sentiment. While polls capture broad public opinion, this market incorporates real-money bets that respond quickly to shipping data, geopolitical developments, and economic indicators. Traders may price in factors polls miss, leading to divergence in implied probabilities. The gap between this market and polling averages can signal where institutional expectations differ from general public views.

This market resolves around Aug 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on authoritative traffic data and official announcements regarding passage volumes through the canal during the specified window. Traders should monitor reputable news sources and transport authority updates as the resolution date approaches.

Several signals could shift this market before resolution: new shipping data releases, political developments affecting regional stability, infrastructure announcements related to the canal, and broader economic shifts influencing global trade routes. Natural events or accidents impacting canal operations may also cause rapid price changes. Traders will watch freight industry reports, policy statements from Panama, and real-time vessel tracking services for early indicators.