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402,751

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5

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/3 - 8/9)
kalshi

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/3 - 8/9)

Volume:
$6,949

Above 175

 - Kalshi

Above 175 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 11, 2026

Closed: Aug 11, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 175

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,902
N/A
N/A
$2,689
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 150

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$738
N/A
N/A
$419
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 200

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,660
N/A
N/A
$950
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 225

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$624
N/A
N/A
$624
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 250

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks maritime activity through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Over a one-week period, observers will monitor vessel transit counts to determine whether traffic exceeds specific thresholds. The outcome reflects broader geopolitical and economic dynamics influencing shipping routes in the region.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the total number of vessel transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds one of several escalating thresholds between August 3 and August 9, 2026. All thresholds share a common calculation method: daily transit counts are summed over the entire seven-day period. Regardless of which threshold is met, the market resolves to 'Yes' if any threshold is surpassed. Resolution occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the measurement window, ensuring all data is fully available before final determination. The structure allows participants to assess varying levels of traffic intensity through a single cohesive framework.