TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/24 - 8/30)
kalshi

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/24 - 8/30)

Volume:
$4,420

Above 150

 - Kalshi

Above 150 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 1, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 150

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,430
N/A
N/A
$1,430
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 175

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,092
N/A
N/A
$671
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 200

View
0%
30%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,214
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 225

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$684
N/A
N/A
$684
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 250

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key alternate route to the Suez Canal, will be measured. This narrow passage sees substantial oil and commodity shipments, with volumes affected by Red Sea conditions and regional security dynamics.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specific threshold (ranging from 150 to 250) between August 24 and August 30, 2026. The total is the sum of daily counts across all seven days. All markets resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, once complete data is available.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks the latest odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the Bab el-Mandeb traffic market. It shows how traders are pricing the likelihood of various traffic scenarios through the strait between August 24 and August 30. The interface updates in real time, reflecting market sentiment and any new developments that could affect shipping routes or naval movements in the region. You can see current volume at $1,807 and total volume at $4,420, giving you a clear view of market activity on Kalshi.

Unlike traditional polling averages that rely on voter self-reporting, this market uses real-money bets to reflect trader expectations about traffic conditions in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. While polls may capture public opinion, this market often reacts more quickly to geopolitical developments, shipping data, and expert analysis, potentially showing divergence from survey-based forecasts.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will depend on authoritative news sources, official maritime reports, and other reliable data confirming the actual traffic conditions during the specified window.

Key events that could shift this market include naval deployments, terrorist threats or attacks, environmental hazards like storms or sinkings, diplomatic tensions among regional powers, and any major disruptions to shipping reported by international maritime agencies. Each new development may cause rapid reassessment of traffic probabilities among traders on Kalshi.