TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

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$107,351,958

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2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

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30,097

events

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2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

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Kalshi:

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/10 - 8/16)
kalshi

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (8/10 - 8/16)

Volume:
$2,349

Above 175

 - Kalshi

Above 175 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 18, 2026

Closed: Aug 18, 9:00 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 175

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,002
N/A
N/A
$812
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 150

View
100%
15%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$649
N/A
N/A
$649
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 200

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$605
N/A
N/A
$312
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 225

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$88
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 250

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

Maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait influences global shipping routes and regional naval security dynamics. Observing passage volumes during August 10-16, 2026, reflects both commercial shipping patterns and any potential disruptions in the area.

Kalshi

This event evaluates whether the cumulative number of vessel transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, officially documented by IMF PortWatch, surpasses defined benchmarks between August 10 and August 16, 2026. The calculation aggregates daily tallies throughout the entire week-long window. Resolution for all markets depends on the same verified dataset, with official confirmation scheduled for no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM after the period ends to allow full data processing. The thresholds examined are 150, 175, 200, 225, and 250 total transits for the week.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Bab el-Mandeb traffic market tracks the current odds and price history of whether traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will meet specified levels between 8/10 and 8/16. You can also view the 24-hour volume of $1,063 to gauge recent trader interest. This single-venue view shows how market participants on Kalshi are pricing this political event as it evolves.

Unlike traditional polling averages that rely on voter self-reporting, this market uses real-money trading to reflect expectations about real-world outcomes. While polls may show shifting public sentiment, traders in this market incorporate additional factors such as geopolitical analysis, economic impacts, and risk assessments when placing bets. As a result, odds here can diverge noticeably from polling data, especially when market participants price in new information about naval security or regional stability.

This market resolves around Aug 18, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Judges will compare official shipping logs, maritime authority reports, and reputable news sources to determine whether traffic levels during the specified window meet the criteria. The process relies on widely available public records rather than any single organization’s announcement.

Key events that could shift this market include naval patrol announcements, insurance rate changes for Red Sea shipping, or confirmed attacks on commercial vessels. Economic indicators such as oil price spikes or regional trade data may also influence trader sentiment. Additionally, political developments—especially statements from major powers about strait security—often cause rapid price adjustments as participants reassess risk profiles and likely traffic patterns.