TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (7/27 - 8/2)
kalshi

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (7/27 - 8/2)

Volume:
$10,745

Above 200

 - Kalshi

Above 200 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Aug 4, 9:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 200

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,446
N/A
N/A
$948
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 175

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,379
N/A
N/A
$490
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 150

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,320
N/A
N/A
$683
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 300

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,922
N/A
N/A
$123
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 275

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,415
N/A
N/A
$786
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 250

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,319
N/A
N/A
$1,170
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 225

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$942
N/A
N/A
$543
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This event tracks maritime activity through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a critical waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Participants assess whether ship transit levels exceed specified thresholds during a defined period. The outcome depends on aggregated daily vessel counts reported by an international financial institution.

Kalshi

All markets in this event evaluate whether the total number of vessel transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as officially reported by the IMF PortWatch, exceeds one of several escalating numerical thresholds between 150 and 300 over the period from July 27 to August 2, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct threshold, with the market resolving to 'Yes' if the cumulative daily count surpasses its respective threshold. The total is derived by summing individual daily transit counts across the entire six-day period. Resolution for all markets is contingent upon the availability of complete and verified data, and will occur no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the measurement window. All markets share identical calculation methodologies and resolution timing, differing only in their threshold values.

Frequently asked questions

This market resolves around Aug 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will hinge on authoritative news sources and official data releases that confirm traffic activity during the defined window.