TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Total space launches in October
kalshi

How many space launches in October?

Volume:
$29,904

Above 11

 - Kalshi

Above 11 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 10:39 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 11

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,733
N/A
N/A
$2,914
5d 12h 32m
Yes
kalshi

Above 10

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,050
N/A
N/A
$1,104
5d 12h 32m
Yes
kalshi

Above 9

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$642
N/A
N/A
$642
5d 12h 32m
Yes
kalshi

Above 12

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,144
N/A
N/A
$1,565
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 16

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,356
N/A
N/A
$1,551
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 17

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,331
N/A
N/A
$2,276
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 13

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,204
N/A
N/A
$2,049
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 18

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,972
N/A
N/A
$521
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 15

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,729
N/A
N/A
$1,292
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 14

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,300
N/A
N/A
$950
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 19

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$843
N/A
N/A
$701
5d 12h 32m
No
kalshi

Above 20

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$599
N/A
N/A
$199
5d 12h 32m
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks the number of space launches conducted by U.S.-licensed commercial operators during October 2026. It provides multiple thresholds for different launch counts, allowing participants to speculate on whether activity will exceed various levels. The outcome depends entirely on actual launch data from that specific month and year.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the total number of space launches conducted by U.S.-licensed commercial operators in October 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold (ranging from Above 9 to Above 20 launches). If the actual number of launches exceeds the threshold specified in a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All launch dates are converted to Eastern Time to ensure consistent allocation within the October time period, regardless of where the launch is physically recorded. This unified approach ensures clarity and fairness across all threshold-based markets by applying the same temporal conversion rule to every launch event.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the October space launch market tracks the current odds, price history, and 24-hour trading volume. You’ll find a visual representation of how traders are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes regarding the total number of space launches occurring throughout October. Currently, the 24-hour volume is $2,009 and the total volume is $29,904. This allows you to see how interest and trading activity are evolving as we approach the end of the month and potential launch dates. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market sentiment.

Comparing prediction market odds to analyst forecasts reveals how collective intelligence stacks up against expert opinion. Often, this market demonstrates a different perspective than traditional polls or expert predictions, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating events more accurately. While analysts may offer specific launch predictions based on schedules and technical assessments, the market reflects the aggregated beliefs of many participants, factoring in unforeseen delays or unexpected successes. This dynamic interplay between expert analysis and crowd wisdom can provide a more nuanced understanding of the likely outcome.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing different launch totals. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as determined by supply and demand. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders believe a particular number of launches is likely, the price of contracts for that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This creates a dynamic pricing mechanism that constantly adjusts to new information and changing perceptions about the event. The current market reflects the collective assessment of all participants.

This market resolves around Nov 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of space launches in October is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data from reputable space agencies and launch providers. This includes all orbital launch attempts, regardless of success or failure, that occur during the calendar month of October. The final outcome will be a whole number representing the total number of launches completed during that period, establishing the winning contracts in this market.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before it resolves. Any announcements regarding launch delays, successful launches, or launch failures will directly impact the odds. Unexpected technical issues with rockets or payloads, changes in weather conditions at launch sites, or geopolitical events affecting space programs could also cause shifts in market prices. Furthermore, major announcements from space agencies like SpaceX, NASA, or others regarding their launch schedules will be closely watched by traders, potentially leading to increased volume and price fluctuations in this market.