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Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?
polymarket

Total Internet Blackout in Iran by...?

Volume:
$132,177

July 31

 - Polymarket

July 31 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 9:44 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

July 31

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
2¢
N/A
$67,810
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$64,366
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM (UTC+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM (UTC+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until all relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Iran internet blackout market displays real-time odds and historical price movements on Polymarket, where traders buy and sell shares tied to whether a total internet outage will occur by the specified deadline. You can monitor the current probability, recent trading volume, and price trends to understand how the market is pricing this geopolitical risk. The interface also shows order book depth and recent trades, giving you a complete view of market sentiment and liquidity as events unfold.

Prediction market odds and traditional polling measure different things. Polls capture public opinion at a snapshot in time, while this market reflects traders' real-money bets on whether a specific outcome will occur. Markets often incorporate breaking news, expert analysis, and geopolitical developments faster than polls update. Because traders face financial consequences for inaccuracy, prediction markets can sometimes outperform polls at forecasting binary events, though both tools offer valuable signals when interpreted together.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares of yes and no outcomes. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each share reflects the collective probability estimate—a share trading at $0.72 implies roughly a 72% chance of that outcome occurring. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. This continuous price discovery process ensures the market reflects the most current assessment of whether a total internet blackout in Iran will happen by the deadline.

This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether a total internet blackout—affecting all or nearly all internet connectivity across Iran—occurs before that date. Traders should monitor news from international media, internet monitoring organizations, and official statements to assess the likelihood as the deadline approaches. Resolution will be based on widely documented and independently verified reports of such an outage.

Major geopolitical escalations, sanctions announcements, or regional conflicts could significantly shift odds upward. Technical infrastructure failures, government policy changes regarding internet control, or statements from Iranian officials about network resilience may also trigger price movement. International diplomatic developments, cyber warfare incidents, or reports of planned shutdowns would likely drive trading activity. Additionally, any credible reporting of partial or test blackouts, or conversely, statements affirming network stability, could move traders to adjust their positions before the market resolves.