TOTAL VOLUME:

$142.3b

24H VOL:

$107,419,736

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,643,541,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,594,026,835

471,138

Markets across

35,775

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,926

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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Toronto Mayoral Election Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Toronto Mayoral?

Total volume:
$424,265
Volume 24h:
$31,014
39%
Liquidity:
$479,019
0.02%
Open interest:
$22,776
1%

Olivia Chow

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 27, 2026

Time left: 11d:09h:24m

Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?

74%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 73¢ buys you 137 shares | Odds: 74% Total Payout: $137 | Net Profit: $37 Multiplier: 1.37x | ROI: 37% APY not meaningful 11 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Olivia Chow

Trade
74%
1%
Yes 73¢No 28¢
1¢
N/A
$24,339
1%
44%
$10,357
1w 4d 9h
active
polymarket

Olivia Chow

Trade
72%
2%
Yes 72¢No 29¢
1¢
$67,894
$157,130
16%
80%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
71.8%
Yes 72.5¢No 28.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
polymarket

Brad Bradford

Trade
28%
2%
Yes 29¢No 72¢
1¢
$53,574
$131,334
8%
62%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
kalshi

Brad Bradford

Trade
28%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
N/A
$15,564
0.71%
37%
$9,094
1w 4d 9h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
28.4%
Yes 28.5¢No 72.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Chris Alexander

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 100¢
2¢
N/A
$51
0%
0%
$50
1w 4d 9h
active
kalshi

John Tory

Trade
0%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.9¢
1.7¢
N/A
$3,858
0.65%
15%
$2,628
1w 4d 9h
active
polymarket

John Tory

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$58,231
$17,258
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 1.7¢
kalshi

Anthony Furey

Trade
0%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.9¢
1.7¢
N/A
$647
4%
323%
$647
1w 4d 9h
active
polymarket

Anthony Furey

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$60,418
$13,059
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
Avg: 1.7¢Max: 1.7¢
polymarket

Marco Mendicino

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$58,288
$19,140
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
polymarket

Michael Ford

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$60,121
$16,253
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
polymarket

Kevin Clarke

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$60,493
$12,847
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
polymarket

Ana Bailão

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$59,999
$12,784
0%
0%
N/A
1w 4d 23h
active
Total markets: 13

Intro

This market tracks the outcome of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, asking which candidate will ultimately win. Currently, the consensus probability of Olivia Chow winning is 78.0%. This forecast aggregates data from Kalshi and Polymarket, and will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting and official information from the City of Toronto. Keep an eye on the official election results following the vote on October 27, 2026, to see how the market aligns with the final outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define resolution based on the official winner of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election, utilizing credible reporting and official sources.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting; official information from the City of Toronto

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' for the candidate who officially wins the 2026 Toronto mayoral election.
  • Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors do not count towards resolution.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Tie: In the unlikely event of a tie, the resolution will follow the official procedure for breaking ties as determined by the City of Toronto.
  • Election Delay: If the election is significantly delayed beyond October 26, 2026, resolution will occur based on the eventual official result, even if it occurs after the Polymarket deadline of June 30, 2027.
  • Candidate Withdrawal: If a candidate withdraws before the election, markets for that candidate will likely approach 0, but will still resolve to 'Yes' if they somehow win (e.g., write-in campaign).
Timing: Upon the official announcement of the winner of the 2026 Toronto mayoral election by the City of Toronto.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The 2026 Toronto mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Toronto as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Toronto.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the official certification or declaration by the relevant Toronto electoral authority. The winner is the candidate who wins according to Toronto's electoral system and either is inaugurated and takes office or the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office. Contested results are resolved based on the final certified outcome by the appropriate electoral authority or highest court with jurisdiction. The market remains open until the rescheduled election or two years from the original date, whichever comes first. If results are annulled by a court or authority after announcement but before the winner takes office, the contract remains open until a re-run election or expiration.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this dashboard aggregates real-time predictions on the outcome of the Toronto mayoral election. It tracks the consensus view formed by traders actively forecasting the winner, providing a dynamic assessment of probabilities. Currently, the combined volume across both platforms exceeds $424,265, with $31,014 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows for a broader, more liquid view of expectations than any single prediction market could offer. The dashboard displays the probabilities as implied by the trading activity, offering a unique perspective on this important election.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling data. While polls capture stated preferences, this market reflects what individuals are willing to *bet* on, potentially revealing more about perceived likelihood of success. Polling averages can be influenced by factors like sampling bias or question wording, whereas the financial stakes in this market incentivize participants to be as accurate as possible. It's important to note that both sources of information provide valuable insights, and discrepancies can highlight areas of uncertainty or hidden information surrounding the Toronto mayoral election.

Prices for the Toronto mayoral election can vary between Polymarket and Kalshi due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has its own user base, trading rules, and fee structures, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, differing levels of liquidity on each platform can lead to temporary price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket currently favors Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? at 71.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election? at 74.0%. These differences aren't necessarily contradictions, but rather reflect the unique dynamics of each market.

This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the City of Toronto following the mayoral election. The market will determine the winner based on which candidate receives the most votes, as reported by official sources. Traders will be able to see the final outcome and the resulting payouts after the official results are released and verified.

Several events could significantly impact this market before the Toronto mayoral election. Major endorsements from influential figures, shifts in public opinion revealed by new polling data, and significant campaign events like debates or rallies could all cause price fluctuations. Unexpected controversies involving candidates or changes in key policy positions could also influence trading activity. Any news that alters perceptions of a candidate's chances of winning is likely to be reflected in the odds offered on Polymarket and Kalshi.