TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Top Open Source AI this week
kalshi

Which AI will rank highest by 2026-10-16?

Volume:
$1,035

Xiaomi

 - Kalshi

Xiaomi - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 16, 2026

Closed: Oct 16, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Xiaomi

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
$419
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Kimi

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$256
N/A
N/A
$245
Settled
No
kalshi

Meta

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$192
N/A
N/A
$190
Settled
No
kalshi

Nvidia

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
$120
Settled
No
kalshi

GLM

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

DeepSeek

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Thinking Machines

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Mistral

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Google

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

OpenAI

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Cohere

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
kalshi

Alibaba

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
Settled
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event tracks the competitive landscape of open-source AI models, focusing on which technology achieves the highest ranking on a specific index by a set date. It reflects the rapid evolution and evaluation of artificial intelligence capabilities within the open-source community.

Kalshi

The event determines the highest-ranked open-source AI model as listed on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at precisely 10:00am ET on October 16, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific AI model, and if that model holds the top position, the respective market resolves positively. In cases where multiple models share the highest rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking rules apply; if no such rules exist, all tied models equally share the top rank. Contracts for tied models pay out an amount equal to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. The platform disclaims any official affiliation with the governing body or entities involved, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the open source AI market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, providing a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets. You can also see a price history chart showing how the probabilities have shifted over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $633. This allows you to gauge market sentiment and identify potential trends within this rapidly evolving space. Total volume for this market is $1,035.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the leading open source AI projects. While analysts often rely on qualitative assessments and expert opinions, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, reflecting a diverse range of perspectives and real-time information. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Tracking these differences can reveal valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more trades occur, the prices adjust to reflect the collective intelligence of the traders. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive market, constantly updating to incorporate new information and changing sentiment regarding the open source AI landscape.

This market resolves around Oct 16, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the leading open source AI projects are verified against credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding project activity, community engagement, and overall impact within the AI ecosystem. The specific criteria for determining the 'top' open source AI projects will be based on widely recognized metrics and benchmarks within the field, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from leading open source AI projects, such as new model releases or significant funding rounds, would likely cause price fluctuations. Changes in the regulatory landscape surrounding AI development and deployment could also influence trader sentiment. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI research, or the emergence of a new, disruptive open source project, could also shift the probabilities. Furthermore, shifts in broader technology trends and investor interest in AI could move this market.