TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Top Coding AI this week
kalshi

Which AI will lead coding this week?

Volume:
$2,734

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,743
N/A
N/A
$922
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Grok

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$353
N/A
N/A
$88
Settled
No
kalshi

GLM

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$98
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$86
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$83
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$80
N/A
N/A
$57
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$78
N/A
N/A
$52
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63
N/A
N/A
$63
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48
N/A
N/A
$48
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

The competition tracks which AI model tops the LM Code Arena Leaderboard on a specific date. Each market focuses on a different AI system, with the outcome determined by their ranking.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the respective AI model is ranked #1 on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard as of November 2, 2026, at 10:00am ET. If multiple models tie for the top rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking methodology applies; if none exists, all tied entities share the highest rank. Contracts for tied candidates resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. Kalshi disclaims any affiliation with the Governing League, and all trademarks belong to their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the AI coding market tracks the current odds for each possible outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $22, and the total volume traded to date, which is $2,734. This provides a clear picture of market activity and where traders are placing their bets regarding the leading AI coding tools.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for the AI coding market vary widely, with opinions differing on which tool will demonstrate the most significant advancement this week. This market offers a unique perspective, aggregating the wisdom of the crowd and providing a real-time assessment of probabilities based on actual trading activity. While some analysts may favor certain AI models, the market's odds reflect a broader range of informed opinions and potential developments.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on which AI coding tool is most widely recognized as the leading performer during the specified timeframe, as determined by objective metrics and expert consensus. Traders should monitor news and developments in the AI coding space leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from companies developing AI coding tools, such as new feature releases or performance benchmarks, would likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected bugs or security vulnerabilities in a leading model could also shift the odds. Furthermore, influential blog posts, research papers, or endorsements from prominent figures in the tech industry could sway market sentiment and drive trading activity. Monitoring these developments is key to understanding potential shifts in the AI coding market.