TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$323,326,361

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,969,435,260

419,363

Markets across

40,411

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
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Science and Technology
Top Coding AI this week
kalshi

Which AI will be top coding model?

Volume:
$2,658

Claude

 - Kalshi

Claude - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Claude

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,277
N/A
N/A
$1,204
Settled
Yes
kalshi

GLM

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$317
N/A
N/A
$317
Settled
No
kalshi

Grok

0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$247
N/A
N/A
$247
Settled
No
kalshi

Kimi

0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$247
N/A
N/A
$247
Settled
No
kalshi

Qwen

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Dola

0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

ChatGPT

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
$36
Settled
No
kalshi

Gemini

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$40
N/A
N/A
$39
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks the competitive performance of various leading AI coding models in a standardized evaluation on a specific date. It reflects the rapid evolution and rivalry in the field of artificial intelligence, where each model's ability to solve coding challenges is measured and compared against others in real-world conditions.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple artificial intelligence models to determine which achieves the highest ranking on the LM Code Arena Leaderboard as of October 19, 2026, at 10:00 am ET. If any model secures the #1 position, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. In cases where models tie for the top rank, the publisher's official tie-breaking rules apply. If no such rules exist, all tied models share the highest rank equally. Contracts for tied models will resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. The platform disclaims any formal association with the governing league, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the AI coding market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, reflecting what traders believe is most likely to happen. You can view the price history to see how sentiment has shifted over time, and the 24-hour volume indicates how much trading activity there has been recently. Currently, the total volume for this market is $2,658, with $984 traded in the last 24 hours. This allows you to gauge market interest and potential volatility within this specific prediction market.

Comparing the predictions here to those from analysts and polls reveals how collective intelligence differs from expert opinions. Often, prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and adapt more quickly to new developments than traditional forecasts. If analysts are consistently over or underestimating the likelihood of certain AI coding tools gaining prominence, this market may offer a different perspective. It's a fascinating way to see where the wisdom of the crowd stands relative to established expert views on the leading AI technologies.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the leading AI coding tool for the specified week is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on publicly available data and rankings from reputable sources in the technology industry, assessing which AI demonstrated the most significant advancements or adoption during the defined period. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market's outcome, reflecting real-world performance in the AI coding space.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements regarding new AI coding tools, updates to existing platforms, or shifts in developer adoption rates would all be influential. Unexpected breakthroughs in AI capabilities, or even negative publicity surrounding a particular tool, could also cause price fluctuations. Furthermore, influential reports from industry analysts or prominent tech publications could sway trader sentiment and move the odds. Monitoring these events closely will provide insight into the potential direction of this market.