TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.7b

24H VOL:

$279,496,801

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,923,931,766

416,910

Markets across

40,107

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,571

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Top Chinese AI Company week of October 26th
kalshi

Which AI company will lead in China?

Volume:
$14,849

Xiaomi

 - Kalshi

Xiaomi - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Xiaomi

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,134
N/A
N/A
$2,807
Settled
Yes
kalshi

ByteDance

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,563
N/A
N/A
$2,018
Settled
No
kalshi

Moonshot

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,964
N/A
N/A
$3,643
Settled
No
kalshi

Baidu

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,130
N/A
N/A
$824
Settled
No
kalshi

Alibaba

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$557
N/A
N/A
$472
Settled
No
kalshi

DeepSeek

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

MiniMax

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Z.ai

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Tencent

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Meituan

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks the competitive standing of major Chinese AI firms by evaluating their models' performance in a standardized text assessment. The outcome depends on which company's AI model achieves the top position in a specific benchmark test on a set date. Companies must meet eligibility criteria based on their headquarters location.

Kalshi

The event determines whether any of the listed Chinese AI companies achieves the highest ranking in the Arena AI Text Score (Remove Style Control) benchmark on November 2, 2026, at 10:00am ET. Each market corresponds to a specific company, resolving to Yes if that company attains the top position. All qualifying entities must have their global or primary operational headquarters in mainland China. If multiple companies share the highest rank, ties are resolved per the publisher's official methodology; if none exists, all tied entities are considered highest-ranked. In such cases, contracts for tied companies resolve to $1 divided by the number of tied candidates, rounded down. Kalshi disclaims any official affiliation with the governing league, and all trademarks remain property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the Chinese AI company market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, providing a real-time view of where traders are placing their bets. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how these odds have shifted over time, alongside the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $701. The total volume traded to date is $14,849. This allows you to gauge market interest and potential momentum shifts within this specific market.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts regarding the leading Chinese AI company vary, with some predicting a clear frontrunner and others anticipating a more competitive landscape. This market allows you to see what the collective wisdom of traders thinks, which can differ from traditional expert opinions. Often, prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly than analyst reports, reflecting a broader range of data and perspectives about the future of the Chinese AI sector. It's a fascinating comparison to consider when evaluating potential outcomes.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the leading Chinese AI company is verifiable from credible public reporting. This determination will be based on publicly available data concerning market capitalization, revenue, and technological advancements within the Chinese AI industry during the week of October 26th. The resolution will reflect the company widely recognized as the dominant force in the field at that time, based on objective, verifiable metrics.

Several signals could significantly impact this market. Major announcements from key Chinese AI companies regarding breakthroughs in technology, substantial funding rounds, or significant partnerships would likely cause shifts in the odds. Government regulations or policy changes related to the AI sector in China could also be a major catalyst. Unexpected economic data releases impacting the Chinese tech industry, or even geopolitical events affecting international trade, could influence trader sentiment and move this market. Any news that alters perceptions of a company’s competitive position will be closely watched.