TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$107,351,958

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,416,970,024

400,720

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,633

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
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Top AI model this week?
kalshi

Top AI model this week?

Volume:
$400,620

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

 - Kalshi

claude-opus-4-6-thinking - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Closed: Mar 21, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

claude-opus-4-6-thinking

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$205,416
N/A
N/A
$137,273
Settled
Yes
kalshi

claude-opus-4-6

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$179,991
N/A
N/A
$128,997
Settled
No
kalshi

gpt-5.4-high

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,177
N/A
N/A
$6,177
Settled
No
kalshi

gemini-3.1-pro-preview

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,562
N/A
N/A
$2,562
Settled
No
kalshi

dola-seed-2.0-preview

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,298
N/A
N/A
$2,298
Settled
No
kalshi

kimi-k2.5-thinking

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,396
N/A
N/A
$1,396
Settled
No
kalshi

grok-4.20-beta1

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$923
N/A
N/A
$923
Settled
No
kalshi

gemini-3-flash

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$688
N/A
N/A
$688
Settled
No
kalshi

ernie-5.0-0110

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$641
N/A
N/A
$641
Settled
No
kalshi

gemini-3-pro

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$528
N/A
N/A
$528
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks which AI model will be ranked at the top of a major AI leaderboard on March 21, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET. The market resolves positively if any of a specific set of AI models from leading AI research organizations (Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, xAI, Baidu, Moonshot, and others) holds the top position at that exact time. The event essentially captures the competitive landscape of frontier AI model development and which organization's model will be leading in performance rankings at that future date.