TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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Top AI model this week
kalshi

Top AI model this week

Volume:
$84,591

claude-opus-5-max

 - Kalshi

claude-opus-5-max - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 17, 10:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

claude-opus-5-max

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$20,715
N/A
N/A
$12,234
Settled
Yes
kalshi

claude-fable-5

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$30,992
N/A
N/A
$30,992
Settled
No
kalshi

claude-opus-5-high

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$23,697
N/A
N/A
$13,089
Settled
No
kalshi

qwen3.8-max

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,862
N/A
N/A
$5,168
Settled
No
kalshi

claude-opus-4-7

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,325
N/A
N/A
$3,325
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks which artificial intelligence model achieves the highest ranking in a standardized evaluation on a specific date. The ranking is determined by a combination of metrics including user benchmarks, performance scores, and release timelines. The outcome reflects the leading edge of AI capability as measured by the evaluation criteria in place at that time.

Kalshi

The event determines the top-ranked AI model as of August 17, 2026, at 10:00 AM ET, based on a unified ranking system. If multiple models share the same primary rank, the model with the highest Arena Score breaks the tie. Should the tie persist, the model with the most votes is selected. If still unresolved, the model released earlier prevails. All markets require checking the 'Remove Style Control' toggle when verifying the source data to ensure consistency across evaluations.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the weekly top AI model market dashboard shows the current odds for which AI model will be ranked highest this week, along with price history and 24-hour volume of $31,937. This real-time view lets you see how traders are positioning on the short_topic and spot trends as new models or updates emerge.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of which AI model will lead this week. While analysts may weigh long-term capabilities or corporate announcements, traders in this market react to real-time performance metrics, recent benchmarks, and emerging trends, which can create noticeable differences in implied probabilities.

This market resolves around Aug 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The winning model will be the one that independent, reputable sources identify as the highest-ranked AI model for that week, based on widely accepted performance metrics and benchmarks.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Major announcements about new model releases, significant performance benchmark results, large-scale user adoption reports, or high-impact research papers often cause rapid price changes. Additionally, any widely covered controversy or withdrawal of a leading model can also move trader sentiment and odds.