TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Dolly Parton
- Polymarket
Dolly Parton - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
$
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is ranked in the Top 5 of Google’s official Year in Search Global "Passings" list for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → Passings. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is ranked in the Top 5 of Google’s official Year in Search Global "Passings" list for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → Passings. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on historical data and expert opinions, this market aggregates the views of a diverse group of traders. This can lead to discrepancies, particularly when anticipating unexpected events or shifts in public sentiment. For example, if analysts predict a certain figure will be widely discussed, but traders believe another individual will garner more attention, the odds on Polymarket will reflect that divergence. It's a fascinating comparison of informed speculation versus collective forecasting.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the likelihood of each passing topping Google searches in 2026. The price of a share directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the potential passings. Higher demand for shares in a particular passing will drive up its price, indicating a greater perceived chance of it occurring. This dynamic pricing mechanism ensures the market remains responsive to new information and changing sentiment.
This market resolves around Dec 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the most searched passings are verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on official Google Trends data for the year 2026, specifically identifying the top five individuals who generated the highest search volume related to their passing. The market will settle based on this publicly available data, ensuring a transparent and objective resolution process. Traders should monitor news and trends throughout 2026 to assess potential catalysts that could influence the outcome of this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market. Unexpected deaths of prominent figures would undoubtedly cause shifts in the odds, particularly if the individual was widely known or controversial. Major health scares involving public figures could also increase speculation and trading activity. Furthermore, significant cultural or political events that generate widespread media coverage could indirectly impact the perceived likelihood of certain passings dominating search trends. Any news that alters public perception of mortality or fame has the potential to influence trading behavior and, consequently, the prices within this market.