TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
all
2 markets
Predict
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of the World Health Organization declaring a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a pandemic in 2026. Currently, the consensus probability of a Hantavirus pandemic occurring in 2026 is 4.0%. This aggregation combines data from Polymarket and Predict, with resolution determined by official WHO communications. The market will resolve to ‘Yes’ if the WHO explicitly uses the term ‘pandemic’ to describe a Hantavirus outbreak by December 31, 2026, so monitoring WHO statements leading up to that date will be key.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Predict utilize identical resolution criteria, relying on explicit WHO pandemic declarations for Hantavirus-related outbreaks.Primary resolution logic: Official WHO communicationsCore resolution logic:
- Resolution depends on WHO explicitly labeling a Hantavirus outbreak as a 'pandemic'.
- A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) is not sufficient for resolution unless also declared a 'pandemic'.
- The relevant timeframe for resolution is between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- WHO Ambiguity: If the WHO uses language that strongly suggests a pandemic but does not explicitly use the term 'pandemic', the market will likely resolve to 'No'. The criteria require an explicit declaration.
- Multiple Hantavirus Strains: The resolution criteria cover Hantavirus, HPS, HFRS, or any Hantavirus-related outbreak. A pandemic declaration related to any of these will trigger a 'Yes' resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often reflect a ‘wisdom of the crowd’ effect, potentially incorporating a broader range of information and perspectives than traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst predictions rely on specific models and expertise, the prices on Polymarket and Predict represent the collective judgment of many individuals with varying levels of knowledge. This can lead to prediction markets being more accurate, especially when dealing with complex events where unforeseen factors play a significant role. However, it’s important to note that both approaches have limitations and can be influenced by biases.
Prices on Polymarket and Predict can diverge for several reasons. Polymarket and Predict can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading volume, and liquidity, all of which can impact price discovery. Furthermore, the platforms may have different fee structures or trading mechanisms. Currently, Polymarket currently favors a Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 at 2.5%, while Predict leans toward the same outcome at 3.0%. These differences highlight the dynamic nature of prediction markets and the importance of considering multiple sources of information when evaluating potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether a pandemic caused by a Hantavirus strain is declared by a recognized global health authority, such as the World Health Organization, during the year 2026. The determination will rely on publicly available data and established epidemiological criteria, ensuring a transparent and objective assessment of the event’s occurrence.
Several signals could significantly impact this market. Any confirmed reports of unusual Hantavirus activity, increased incidence of Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS) cases, or the identification of a novel, highly transmissible Hantavirus strain would likely cause prices to shift. Additionally, developments in vaccine research or antiviral treatments targeting Hantaviruses could influence trader sentiment. Global health alerts issued by organizations like the WHO, or changes in public health preparedness measures, could also move this market as traders react to evolving risk assessments.
