TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.2b
24H VOL:
$220,210,861
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950,106,883
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,090,266,929
827,536
Markets across
14,902
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
919
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International? Odds & Prediction Markets
3% - 3%
chance
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
$
$20
$50
$100
$500
Trade on Predict
At 4¢ buys you 2,500 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $2,500 | Net Profit: $2,400 Multiplier: 25.00x | ROI: 2,400% APY not meaningful 169 days to resolutionTrade on Polymarket
At 2.6¢ buys you 3,846 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $3,846 | Net Profit: $3,746 Multiplier: 38.46x | ROI: 3,746% APY not meaningful 167 days to resolutionTrade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 6.5¢ buys you 1,538 shares | Odds: 3% Total Payout: $1,538 | Net Profit: $1,438 Multiplier: 15.38x | ROI: 1,438% APY not meaningful 169 days to resolutionIntro
This market tracks the probability that the World Health Organization will explicitly characterize a Hantavirus outbreak as a pandemic during 2026. Across Polymarket, Kalshi, and Predict, the aggregated consensus stands at 3.0% for a Hantavirus pandemic occurring in 2026. Resolution will be determined by official WHO communications, with credible reporting used as supporting evidence. Watch for any official WHO statements or public health declarations through December 31, 2026, the final date by which such a characterization would trigger a Yes resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi uses PHEIC declaration as sole criterion, while Polymarket and Predict require explicit WHO pandemic characterization. PHEIC and pandemic are distinct designations with different thresholds and implications.Hero tip: Track WHO communications for both PHEIC declaration AND explicit use of the word 'pandemic'. A PHEIC alone triggers Kalshi but not Polymarket/Predict. Arbitrage opportunity exists if markets price these identically despite different resolution criteria.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Requires explicit WHO characterization of Hantavirus/HPS/HFRS as a 'pandemic' in official public communications (statements, reports, press briefings, publications) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. PHEIC designation alone is insufficient. Key Quote: 'A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.'
- Predict: Identical to Polymarket: requires explicit WHO pandemic characterization in official communications. PHEIC alone does not qualify. Key Quote: 'A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.'
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if Hantavirus becomes a PHEIC in 2026. No requirement for explicit pandemic language. Key Quote: 'If Hantavirus becomes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
If Hantavirus becomes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Predict
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Polymarket and Kalshi may show divergent odds due to differences in liquidity depth, user demographics, and market microstructure. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Larger platforms often attract institutional traders with access to proprietary epidemiological data, while smaller venues may reflect retail sentiment or lag in price discovery. Geographic arbitrage, varying fee structures, and distinct user bases focused on different risk narratives can create temporary spreads of 0.0 percentage points or more. Cross-platform monitoring helps traders identify mispricings and understand which signals are driving consensus versus outlier valuations on hantavirus pandemic risk.
The Hantavirus pandemic in 2026 market resolves on Jan 1, 2027. Resolution hinges on whether credible public health authorities, including the WHO, declare a hantavirus outbreak meeting pandemic thresholds by that date. Outcome determination considers case counts, geographic spread, transmission rates, and official emergency declarations. Traders should monitor surveillance data from endemic regions, seasonal rodent activity patterns, and any significant clusters reported by health agencies. The specificity of resolution criteria ensures clarity, though interpretation of borderline cases may require adjudication by market administrators or oracles designated at market inception.
Key catalysts for market movement include confirmed hantavirus clusters in new geographic regions, unusually high rodent populations linked to climate or agricultural changes, and official WHO or CDC alerts elevating threat levels. Laboratory-confirmed cases with novel transmission patterns, healthcare worker infections, or evidence of human-to-human spread would sharply increase odds. Conversely, successful containment of outbreaks, improved surveillance infrastructure, or seasonal declines in rodent populations could lower prices. Media coverage of hantavirus research, vaccine development announcements, and international biosecurity policy shifts also influence trader positioning. Real-time tracking of these signals across Polymarket and Kalshi reflects market sensitivity to evolving epidemiological conditions.
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