TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.4b
24H VOL:
$216,099,358
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,189,677,720
500,754
Markets across
13,672
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,801
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic. The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi uses PHEIC declaration as sole criterion, while Polymarket and Predict require explicit WHO pandemic characterization. PHEIC and pandemic are distinct designations with different thresholds and implications.Hero Tip:
Track WHO communications for both PHEIC declaration AND explicit use of the word 'pandemic'. A PHEIC alone triggers Kalshi but not Polymarket/Predict. Arbitrage opportunity exists if markets price these identically despite different resolution criteria.Critical Divergence Points:
- Polymarket: Requires explicit WHO characterization of Hantavirus/HPS/HFRS as a 'pandemic' in official public communications (statements, reports, press briefings, publications) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. PHEIC designation alone is insufficient. Key Quote: 'A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.'
- Predict: Identical to Polymarket: requires explicit WHO pandemic characterization in official communications. PHEIC alone does not qualify. Key Quote: 'A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.'
- Kalshi: Resolves YES if Hantavirus becomes a PHEIC in 2026. No requirement for explicit pandemic language. Key Quote: 'If Hantavirus becomes a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.'
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