TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Above 3000
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?
$
Description
These markets collectively assess whether measles cases in the U.S. during 2026 will exceed various thresholds (500 to 12,500 confirmed cases). Resolution depends entirely on CDC's official measles case counter, which serves as the authoritative source for all platforms. The markets form a ladder structure, allowing traders to express granular views on outbreak severity.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket uses strict 'at least' thresholds (500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 7500, 10000, 12500 cases), while Kalshi uses 'above' thresholds (500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500, 1750 cases) with different granularity and one incomplete market definition.Hero tip: If you trade on both platforms, note that Polymarket's thresholds are fixed at round numbers while Kalshi's are more granular in the lower range. Kalshi's incomplete market (threshold missing) creates ambiguity—clarify the missing threshold before trading. The 'at least' vs 'above' distinction matters at exact boundary values (e.g., exactly 1000 cases resolves YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi).Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Uses 'at least' resolution logic with 9 distinct thresholds: 500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 7500, 10000, and 12500 confirmed measles cases. Resolution source is the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter.'
- Kalshi: Uses 'above' resolution logic with 6 defined thresholds (500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500, 1750 cases) and one incomplete market with a missing threshold value. Quote: 'If the number of measles in 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' The seventh market definition is incomplete and unresolvable as written.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes based on the total number of measles cases reported in 2026 exceeding specified thresholds. Resolution depends on official case counts from relevant public health authorities, with separate outcomes for case totals above 1500, 1750, 2000, 3000, 4000, 6000, 8000, and 10000.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often reflect a 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, potentially incorporating more diverse information than traditional analyst forecasts. While analyst predictions for measles cases in 2026 are available from organizations like the CDC and WHO, this market provides a real-time, aggregated assessment based on financial incentives. Discrepancies between this market and analyst forecasts could highlight differing assumptions about vaccination rates, outbreak containment measures, or the emergence of new strains. It’s important to note that prediction markets are probabilistic, representing the likelihood of various outcomes, whereas analyst forecasts may present single-point estimates.
Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base, trading fees, and liquidity, which can influence price discovery. Additionally, the specific contracts offered on each platform—Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? and Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?—define different outcomes, leading to varied probabilities. For example, one platform might focus on whether cases exceed a specific threshold, while the other asks about a broader range. Differences in trading volume and the timing of information flow can also contribute to price discrepancies, even for the same underlying event.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of reported measles cases in the U.S. during 2026, as documented by a recognized public health authority like the CDC, will determine the outcome. Traders will be able to see the final result and how it aligns with their predictions. The resolution process aims to provide a transparent and objective assessment of the market's accuracy, based on publicly available data.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major outbreaks of measles in densely populated areas, changes in vaccination policies at the state or federal level, and the emergence of vaccine-resistant strains are all potential catalysts. News regarding the effectiveness of current measles vaccines or the development of new ones could also shift trader sentiment. Public health campaigns aimed at increasing vaccination rates, or conversely, anti-vaccination movements gaining traction, would be closely watched. Any significant announcements from the CDC or WHO regarding measles trends would likely cause movement in this market.
