TOTAL VOLUME:
$97.1b
24H VOL:
$537,357,392
24H TRANSACTIONS:
949,851,807
OPEN INTEREST:
$2,309,828,173
825,223
Markets across
14,759
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
901
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Measles cases in 2026? Odds & Prediction Markets
Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?
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Trade on Kalshi
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 94¢ buys you 106 shares | Odds: 94% Total Payout: $106 | Net Profit: $6 Multiplier: 1.06x | ROI: 6% | APY: 14% 168 days to resolutionTrade on Polymarket
At 90¢ buys you 111 shares | Odds: 89% Total Payout: $111 | Net Profit: $11 Multiplier: 1.11x | ROI: 11% | APY: 26% 168 days to resolutionDescription
These markets collectively assess whether measles cases in the U.S. during 2026 will exceed various thresholds (500 to 12,500 confirmed cases). Resolution depends entirely on CDC's official measles case counter, which serves as the authoritative source for all platforms. The markets form a ladder structure, allowing traders to express granular views on outbreak severity.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Polymarket uses strict 'at least' thresholds (500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 7500, 10000, 12500 cases), while Kalshi uses 'above' thresholds (500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500, 1750 cases) with different granularity and one incomplete market definition.Hero tip: If you trade on both platforms, note that Polymarket's thresholds are fixed at round numbers while Kalshi's are more granular in the lower range. Kalshi's incomplete market (threshold missing) creates ambiguity—clarify the missing threshold before trading. The 'at least' vs 'above' distinction matters at exact boundary values (e.g., exactly 1000 cases resolves YES on Polymarket but NO on Kalshi).Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Uses 'at least' resolution logic with 9 distinct thresholds: 500, 1000, 2000, 3000, 4000, 5000, 7500, 10000, and 12500 confirmed measles cases. Resolution source is the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Quote: 'This market will resolve to Yes if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter.'
- Kalshi: Uses 'above' resolution logic with 6 defined thresholds (500, 750, 1000, 1250, 1500, 1750 cases) and one incomplete market with a missing threshold value. Quote: 'If the number of measles in 2026 is above [threshold], then the market resolves to Yes.' The seventh market definition is incomplete and unresolvable as written.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Kalshi
The market resolves to Yes based on the total number of measles cases reported in 2026 exceeding specified thresholds. Resolution depends on official case counts from relevant public health authorities, with separate outcomes for case totals above 1500, 1750, 2000, 3000, 4000, 6000, 8000, and 10000.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader conviction and incorporate rapidly updated epidemiological data, vaccination coverage trends, and outbreak reports. Traditional analyst forecasts from public health agencies and research institutions tend to lag market pricing and may rely on historical baselines. Markets often price in emerging risks—such as vaccine hesitancy spikes or new variants—faster than formal forecasts update. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are more or less bullish on measles control than official projections, highlighting areas of uncertainty or consensus.
On Polymarket, measles case outcomes are priced as binary contracts reflecting the probability of specific case thresholds being exceeded by year-end. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the implied probability. Higher prices indicate stronger market belief that the threshold will be met. Pricing adjusts continuously as new epidemiological reports, vaccination data, and outbreak news flow in, allowing traders to express nuanced views on measles risk throughout 2026.
The market resolves on Dec 31, 2026, at which point the final measles case count for 2026 is confirmed. Resolution is determined by official case data reported by relevant public health authorities. The outcome depends on whether the actual number of confirmed measles cases falls above or below the specified threshold in the contract. Traders should monitor official health agency announcements and case reporting systems as the year progresses to assess the likelihood of resolution in either direction.
Key catalysts include vaccination rate announcements, measles outbreak reports in specific regions, and changes in vaccine hesitancy sentiment. Detection of new measles variants or importation events from high-incidence countries could sharply increase case forecasts. Policy shifts—such as school vaccination mandate enforcement or public health campaigns—influence transmission dynamics. Seasonal patterns typically drive winter case spikes. International travel trends and disease surveillance data releases also move odds. Traders should track CDC, WHO, and state health department communications for real-time signals affecting 2026 measles incidence.
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