TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$230,589,906
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,885,293,300
410,482
Markets across
40,213
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,340
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:01 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the outcome of an election in a specific Brazilian state, focusing on which candidate secures the highest vote count. The resolution depends solely on the declared election results, reflecting the democratic process where citizens choose their preferred candidate to hold a key public office.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the official outcome of the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election. If Professora Dorinha receives the most valid votes and is declared the winner, her corresponding market resolves to Yes. Similarly, if Vicentinho Júnior achieves this outcome, his market resolves to Yes. Both markets are eligible for accelerated resolution should a consensus emerge among major media outlets regarding the election outcome before official results are certified. No other candidates or scenarios affect the resolution of these markets.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may focus on factors like polling data and campaign finance reports, this market incorporates a wider range of information, including on-the-ground insights and potentially unforeseen events. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of the same data, or from the market identifying factors that analysts haven't fully considered. It's common to see this market adjust more quickly to new information than traditional forecasts, offering a potentially more dynamic view of the race.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Tocantins governor race. The price of each contract reflects the market's assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, creating a real-time estimate of the election's potential results. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market's price movements are driven by supply and demand, with higher demand for a particular outcome driving up its price and vice versa.
This market resolves around Jan 15, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results announced by the relevant electoral authorities in Tocantins. The candidate who receives the most votes in the official election results will be declared the winner, and that outcome will determine the settlement of contracts within this market. Traders should monitor official sources for the final results to understand how their positions will be settled.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Jan 15, 2027. Major developments in the campaigns, such as significant endorsements, unexpected scandals, or shifts in public opinion revealed through new polling data, would likely cause price adjustments. Economic news affecting the state of Tocantins, or national political events that could influence voter sentiment, could also play a role. Furthermore, any changes in the perceived viability of candidates, or unexpected campaign strategies, could lead to shifts in trading activity and, consequently, in the market's odds.
