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Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?
kalshi
limitless

Tim Walz out as Governor of Minnesota?

Total volume:
$6,651,351
Volume 24h:
$235
90%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$2,241,826
0%

Before 2027

all

2 markets

Kalshi

Limitless

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 8, 2027

Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027?

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 7¢ buys you 1,429 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $1,429 | Net Profit: $1,329 Multiplier: 14.29x | ROI: 1,329% APY not meaningful 92 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 94.9¢
1.9¢
N/A
$1,228,918
0.02%
2%
$258,735
3mo 2d
active
limitless

Before 2027

Trade
N/A
N/A
3¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
5.1%
Yes 7¢No 94.9¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 3¢
kalshi

Before February

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,342,129
N/A
N/A
$1,361,568
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before July

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,042,155
N/A
N/A
$602,709
3mo 2d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$38,149
N/A
N/A
$18,814
3mo 2d
No
limitless

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 3w 3d
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks the likelihood of Tim Walz leaving the governorship of Minnesota before 2027. Currently, the consensus probability of this occurring, as aggregated from Kalshi and Limitless, is 4.3%. Resolution will be determined by official government records and registries, alongside reporting from major news organizations such as the Associated Press and Reuters. Keep an eye on January 8, 2027, as this is the current estimated date for market resolution and will reflect whether Walz has left his position prior to that time.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms define resolution as Tim Walz leaving the Governor position before a specified date, with similar definitions of what constitutes 'leaving'.Primary resolution logic: Official government records and registries, and reputable news sources (ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times, Fox News, MSNBC, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and BBC).

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if Tim Walz permanently vacates the role of Governor of Minnesota.
  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not trigger resolution.
  • Resolution will be based on official confirmation of a departure.
  • Death while in office may result in settlement at the last fair price as determined by the exchange.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Re-occupation of Role: If Tim Walz vacates the role and then re-occupies it, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
  • Expiration of Term: The natural expiration of his term without renewal counts as 'leaving' the role.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon official confirmation of Tim Walz's departure from the Governor's office, or upon the specified date (September 1, 2026, or 2027) if no departure occurs before then.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Kalshi

This event establishes two sequential time windows (before July 2026 and before 2027) during which Tim Walz's actual departure from the Governor role would trigger a Yes resolution. Departure requires an actual departure date with the individual vacating the role, defined as any cessation of holding the position including voluntary resignation, involuntary removal, or expiration of term without renewal. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute departure unless formally and permanently ceasing the position. If Walz vacates and then re-occupies the role, settlement occurs at the initial vacation. Death while in office may result in resolution at the last fair price at the Exchange's discretion. If the role ceases to exist with no plausible successor, the market may resolve to No.

Limitless

If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Tim Walz must have an actual departure date by vacating the role within the time period. If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange. Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position. If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role. For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term. Outcome verified from ABC News Australia, Bloomberg News, CNBC, CNN, Deutsche Welle, Financial Times, Fox News, MSNBC, official government records and registries, Tim Walz, Politico, Reuters, the Associated Press, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, and BBC.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi and Limitless, this market tracks the probability of Tim Walz leaving the governorship of Minnesota before Jan 8, 2027. The dashboard aggregates trading activity from both platforms to provide a consensus view of expectations. Currently, the combined volume across both venues is $6,651,351, with $235 traded in the last 24 hours. This indicates significant interest in the potential for a change in Minnesota’s leadership. The Kalshi price reflects traders' assessments, alongside Limitless’s, offering a comprehensive look at the Minnesota Governor market.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects continuously updated beliefs based on new information and the willingness of traders to put capital at risk. Polling data can be influenced by biases and sampling errors, whereas the financial incentive in this market encourages participants to be as accurate as possible. While correlations can exist, discrepancies frequently arise, especially when considering unforeseen events or shifts in public sentiment. This market provides a real-time assessment of probabilities, distinct from static poll results.

This market resolves around Jan 8, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether Tim Walz remains in the office of Governor of Minnesota. The outcome will be determined by publicly available information regarding his status as governor, verified against credible public sources. The market will close and settle based on this objective determination, providing a clear and transparent result reflecting the event's actual occurrence.

Numerous signals could influence trading activity in this market. Any major political developments in Minnesota, such as significant policy changes, scandals involving Governor Walz, or shifts in the political landscape, could impact trader sentiment. Economic factors affecting Minnesota, or national political trends, could also play a role. Unexpected events, like a health issue affecting the governor, or a major legal challenge, could also cause significant movement. Increased media attention or prominent endorsements could also shift the probabilities reflected in this market.