TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.6b

24H VOL:

$156,130,290

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,799,919,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,782,923,786

501,315

Markets across

37,757

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,847

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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Third-best AI Lab end of October?
polymarket

Third-best AI Lab end of October?

Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 12:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$68,194
Volume 24h:
$875
92%
Liquidity:
$26,764
43%
Open interest:
$4,778N/A

Meta

 - Polymarket

Meta - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

Time left: 07d:21h:55m

Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?

78%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 79¢ buys you 127 shares | Odds: 78% Total Payout: $127 | Net Profit: $27 Multiplier: 1.27x | ROI: 27% APY not meaningful 7 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Meta

Trade
78%
14%
Yes 79¢No 23¢
2¢
$1,343
$12,497
5%
19%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Moonshot

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 8¢No 95.9¢
3.9¢
$1,092
$1,714
11%
23%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Alibaba

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 97.8¢
4.8¢
$1,064
$11,149
0.3%
1%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Anthropic

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 4.9¢No 99¢
3.9¢
$489
$2,243
0.14%
12%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Baidu

Trade
3%
2%
Yes 4.8¢No 99.8¢
4.6¢
$1,408
$1,322
0.23%
8%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Google

Trade
2%
Yes 3.4¢No 98.7¢
2.1¢
$2,760
$15,175
0.02%
4%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

Xiaomi

Trade
1%
Yes 1.8¢No 99.6¢
1.4¢
$1,268
$5,053
0.06%
11%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

OpenAI

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.8¢
0.9¢
$1,046
$5,409
0.06%
2%
N/A
1w 9h
active
polymarket

SpaceXAI

Trade
1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.8¢
0.9¢
$1,206
$2,088
0.15%
5%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Tencent

Trade
0%
Yes 0.5¢No 99.9¢
0.4¢
$1,405
$1,328
0.23%
8%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Z.ai

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$1,159
$1,262
0.24%
9%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

DeepSeek

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$1,252
$1,090
0.28%
10%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

ByteDance

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$1,091
$1,256
0.24%
9%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

MiniMax

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,587
$1,315
0%
0.07%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Mistral

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,081
$1,278
0%
0.56%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Meituan

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,283
$897
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Thinky

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,132
$869
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

StepFun

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,159
$730
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Microsoft

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,288
$657
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Amazon

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,312
$446
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
polymarket

Nvidia

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,339
$416
0%
0%
N/A
1w 21h
active
Total markets: 21

Description

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market. Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score. AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the third-best AI Lab market dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $874. It shows how traders value the likelihood of different AI labs being ranked third by the market close on Nov 1, 2026. The interface updates continuously to reflect betting activity and shifts in sentiment around leading research institutions.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often prices in nuances that formal reports may overlook, such as recent talent acquisitions or funding news. While analysts may rely on published performance metrics, traders react instantly to any signal that could affect rankings. This can lead to divergence, where the market implies a higher or lower probability for certain labs based on real-time data and speculation.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set the odds through a logarithmic market scoring rule, which balances risk and reward for both sides of each bet. The current implied probability reflects the collective wisdom of participants betting on which AI lab will finish third by Nov 1, 2026. Volume of $68,194 shows the level of interest and liquidity supporting these prices.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The ranking will be determined by a widely accepted industry benchmark or poll conducted close to that date, and the third position will be settled against that authoritative source.

Key signals include major research publications, leadership changes, funding rounds, or high-profile project launches from competing AI labs. Any event that reshapes perceptions of technical progress or industry influence can shift trader sentiment. Additionally, broader market trends, such as regulatory developments or shifts in investor focus, may also impact odds as the Nov 1, 2026 deadline approaches.