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Texas Senate Republican runoff: Ken Paxton vote percent
kalshi

Texas Senate Republican runoff: Ken Paxton vote percent

Volume:
$26,812

61% - 64%

 - Kalshi

61% - 64% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 4:47 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

61% - 64%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,355
N/A
N/A
$1,654
7mo 4w
Yes
kalshi

Below 43%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,325
N/A
N/A
$3,410
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

55% - 58%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,151
N/A
N/A
$4,158
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

43% - 46%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,030
N/A
N/A
$1,020
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

58% - 61%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,621
N/A
N/A
$1,959
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

At least 64%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,331
N/A
N/A
$1,516
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

52% - 55%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,325
N/A
N/A
$1,576
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

46% - 49%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$976
N/A
N/A
$951
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

49% - 52%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$700
N/A
N/A
$484
7mo 4w
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the specific vote share Ken Paxton will receive in the 2026 Texas Senate Republican runoff, broken into defined percentage ranges. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that Paxton receives between 61% and 64% of the popular vote—stands at 61.0%, while the outcome for 58% to 61% of the vote carries 11.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by the certified popular vote percentage reported for the runoff election. Watch for the certified election results expected around May 26, 2027, which will determine the final vote share outcome.

Kalshi

Ken Paxton's vote percentage in the 2026 Texas Senate Republican runoff is calculated as (total votes received ÷ total valid votes cast) × 100, rounded to the specified decimal places. Resolution is based exclusively on certified/official results, not preliminary results. Write-in votes are included if they appear in certified results; invalid, spoiled, or rejected ballots are excluded from both numerator and denominator. If multiple rounds of voting occur, the percentage is based on the specified round or the first round if not specified. If the election is cancelled, postponed beyond market expiration, or no certified results are available by expiration, the market resolves to No. If a recount changes the certified percentage before expiration, the most recent certified percentage is used. The vote percentage is divided into ranges from below 43% to at least 64%.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations about Paxton's vote share, which often diverge from traditional polling. Markets incorporate real-time information, campaign momentum, and fundraising data that polls may lag. While polls measure voter preference at a single moment, prediction markets price in uncertainty and the full range of possible outcomes through continuous trading. Comparing market odds to recent polling can reveal whether traders expect Paxton to outperform or underperform survey results, signaling confidence or skepticism about his runoff prospects.

The market resolves on May 26, 2027, following the conclusion of the Texas Senate Republican runoff election. Resolution is determined by the official vote count reported by Texas election authorities for Ken Paxton's share of the total votes cast in that race. The outcome will be assigned to whichever bracket matches his final vote percentage once results are certified. Traders holding positions in the correct outcome bracket receive their payout based on the market's final settlement.

Key catalysts include campaign events, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Texas Republicans, and fundraising announcements that signal momentum. Turnout expectations and voter registration data could shift trader sentiment about Paxton's support. National political developments affecting Republican primary dynamics, media coverage of his record as Attorney General, and polling releases will likely trigger price movement. Unexpected controversies or candidate missteps could rapidly reprrice the market. As election day approaches, early voting data and final polls typically drive significant trading volume and odds adjustments.