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Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)
polymarket

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory (Larger Brackets)

Volume:
$146,233

Paxton 25–30%

 - Polymarket

Paxton 25–30% - Polymarket

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: May 25, 8:00 PM EST

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Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Paxton 25–30%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.7¢
N/A
$28,379
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Paxton 30%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$42,849
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paxton 10–15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$18,327
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paxton 15–20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,977
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paxton 0–5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$13,840
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paxton 20–25%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$11,881
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paxton 5–10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,859
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cornyn Win

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market on Polymarket tracks the margin of victory in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff, specifically whether Ken Paxton will win by a margin between 25% and 30%. The leading outcome currently stands at 97.2%, with a secondary outcome of Ken Paxton winning by 30% or more at 2.8%. Resolution will be determined by the official vote count from the Texas Secretary of State following the May 26, 2026 runoff election, with the margin defined as the absolute difference in valid vote percentages between the top two candidates. Watch the May 26, 2026 election results for the final margin calculation.

Polymarket

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives and trader expertise. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate expectations about final outcomes across time. For the Texas Republican Senate runoff margin, traders may weight factors like campaign momentum, fundraising, and ground organization differently than pollsters. These differences can reveal where market participants see polling as outdated or incomplete, offering an alternative lens on the likely victory margin.

The market resolves on May 26, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory announced by Texas election authorities following the Republican Senate primary runoff election. The margin is calculated as the percentage-point difference between the top two finishers. Once official results are certified, the outcome bracket containing the actual margin is deemed correct, and traders holding shares in that bracket receive their payout while other brackets expire worthless.

Key catalysts include candidate debate performances, major endorsements from party leaders or influential figures, campaign spending announcements, and shifts in voter turnout models. Breaking news about candidate controversies or policy positions can rapidly reshape trader expectations. Early voting data and internal polling leaks may signal momentum shifts. Media coverage and grassroots organizing intensity can also influence the perceived margin. As election day approaches, final polls and early voting results will likely drive significant repricing, with traders adjusting probabilities based on which candidate appears to have stronger ground support and voter enthusiasm.