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Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory
polymarket

Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory

Volume:
$262,647

Paxton 9%+

 - Polymarket

Paxton 9%+ - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 13, 2026

Closed: May 24, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Paxton 9%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$144,510
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

Paxton <3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$22,733
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paxton 6–9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20,614
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cornyn 9%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$19,063
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cornyn <3%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Paxton 3–6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,185
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cornyn 3–6%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12,627
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Cornyn 6–9%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,586
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

Other

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Intro

This market tracks the margin of victory in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff, specifically whether the winner will prevail by 9 percentage points or more. On Polymarket, Ken Paxton winning by 9% or more stands at 99.6%, while John Cornyn winning by 9% or more is at 0.1%. The market will resolve based on official vote totals from the Texas Secretary of State following the May 26, 2026 runoff election. Watch the final vote count announcement on election night to determine the exact margin between the top two candidates.

Polymarket

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending). If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Frequently asked questions

The Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff Margin of Victory dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for outcomes tied to the margin by which the Republican nominee wins the runoff. The dashboard displays current implied probability, 24-hour volume of $1,702, and cumulative market activity of $262,647. Users can monitor how the market prices different victory margin thresholds, view price history, and assess liquidity across outcome categories as the runoff approaches May 25, 2026.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket often diverge from traditional polling averages because markets incorporate real-money incentives, late-breaking campaign developments, and trader conviction. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets aggregate forward-looking expectations from participants who have financial stakes in accuracy. For the Texas Republican runoff margin, market prices may shift more rapidly than polls in response to endorsements, debate performance, or turnout indicators, making them a complementary signal to survey data.

The market resolves on or shortly after May 25, 2026, when the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff takes place. Resolution is determined by the official margin of victory announced by Texas election authorities. The outcome depends on the final vote totals for each candidate in the runoff; the market will settle according to which margin bracket the actual result falls into, as defined by the specific contract terms on Polymarket.

Key catalysts include campaign endorsements from prominent Texas Republicans, debate performances, voter turnout shifts, and media coverage of candidate positioning. Ground-game strength, early voting patterns, and last-minute policy announcements can reshape trader expectations about the final margin. Additionally, unexpected controversies, candidate gaffes, or shifts in voter enthusiasm could trigger sharp repricing. Traders monitor internal polling leaks, grassroots mobilization efforts, and demographic turnout forecasts as signals of whether the race will be close or decisive.