TOTAL VOLUME:
$142.4b
24H VOL:
$104,871,197
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,643,541,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,592,701,755
469,827
Markets across
35,657
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,899
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
38%
VS.
Kalshi:
62%
Talarico defeats Paxton
- Kalshi
Talarico defeats Paxton - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 3, 2028
Latest in Elections
Will GOP Nominee be Ken Paxton AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?
$
Description
A political figure will be nominated as a presidential candidate by a major party, and a general election will occur before January 2027, with the outcome potentially favoring either political party.
Kalshi
This event comprises four distinct combination markets, each requiring all specified conditions to occur before January 2027 for payout. The first market resolves Yes if John Cornyn is the GOP nominee and a Democrat wins the general election. The second resolves Yes if Cornyn is the GOP nominee and a Republican wins. The third resolves Yes if Ken Paxton is the GOP nominee and a Democrat wins the general election. The fourth resolves Yes if Paxton is the GOP nominee and a Republican wins. Each combination market is all-or-nothing: if any single component fails to occur or becomes impossible, the entire contract immediately resolves No. Component outcomes are determined according to their corresponding Kalshi rulesets for GOP nomination and general election winner. All conditions must be satisfied before January 2027.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes in the Texas Senate election. The price of each contract reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s depth – the volume of buy and sell orders at various price points – indicates how readily traders can execute their strategies.
This market resolves around Jan 3, 2028, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official results declared by relevant election authorities for the Texas Senate election. The market will determine which candidate ultimately wins the seat, reflecting the final vote count. Traders will then be paid out or have their funds returned based on whether their predictions aligned with the official outcome.
Several factors could significantly impact this market leading up to Jan 3, 2028. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements, or unexpected shifts in polling data could all cause price movements. Debates between candidates, particularly if one performs exceptionally well or poorly, are likely to generate volatility. Furthermore, any unforeseen events – such as a scandal or a major policy announcement – could also influence traders’ perceptions and shift the odds in the Texas Senate election. Changes in the national political landscape could also have an effect.
