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Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory
kalshi

Texas Republican Senate Runoff: Margin of Victory

Volume:
$4,072,180

Ken Paxton, 20%+

 - Kalshi

Ken Paxton, 20%+ - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 12, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 4:45 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Ken Paxton, 20%+

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,304,976
N/A
N/A
$304,174
7mo 4w
Yes
kalshi

Ken Paxton, 15-20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$796,505
N/A
N/A
$319,543
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

Ken Paxton, 10-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$630,433
N/A
N/A
$289,001
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

Ken Paxton, 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$456,030
N/A
N/A
$220,665
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

Ken Paxton, 0-5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$346,726
N/A
N/A
$187,473
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

John Cornyn, 0-5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$215,991
N/A
N/A
$125,892
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

John Cornyn, 5-10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$111,112
N/A
N/A
$80,463
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

John Cornyn, 10-15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$82,126
N/A
N/A
$66,809
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

John Cornyn, 20%+

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$67,862
N/A
N/A
$48,633
7mo 4w
No
kalshi

John Cornyn, 15-20%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$60,418
N/A
N/A
$50,722
7mo 4w
No
Total markets: 10

Intro

This market on Kalshi tracks the expected margin of victory in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate runoff, specifically whether the winning candidate will secure a margin between 20% and 100%. The leading outcome currently stands at 99.6%, while a narrow victory margin between 0% and 5% is priced at 0.2%, according to Kalshi's pricing. Resolution will be determined by the official election results as reported following the runoff vote. Watch for the final vote tallies on election day in 2026, which will determine the exact margin and settle the market by the May 26, 2027 resolution date.

Kalshi

The margin of victory is calculated as the vote percentage (or raw votes or electoral votes, depending on margin type) received by the candidate minus the votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind them if they win, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if they lose. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the calculated margin. If a candidate runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying natural candidate are summed. Positive margins indicate victory, negative margins indicate loss, and a margin of 0 indicates a tie for first place. For uncontested races where the candidate is the only option, the margin is 100 percentage points or the total votes cast. The market covers Ken Paxton margins ranging from 0-5% to 20%+, and John Cornyn margins ranging from 0-5% to 20%+.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi often diverge from traditional polling averages because traders incorporate real-time information, campaign spending, and historical turnout patterns that polls may lag in reflecting. While polls measure voter sentiment at a single point in time, prediction markets aggregate continuous financial incentives for accuracy. For the Texas Republican Senate runoff margin, market prices may shift faster than poll releases when major campaign events occur, offering a complementary signal to conventional survey data for assessing likely victory margins.

Major catalysts include new polling releases showing shifts in voter preference, campaign spending announcements, debate performances, endorsements from prominent Texas Republicans, turnout-driving events, and late-breaking political news. Primary election results and candidate positioning in earlier contests can reshape expectations for the runoff margin. Demographic or regional voting pattern changes, media coverage intensity, and ground-game developments also influence trader assessments. Each of these signals may prompt repricing as the market updates its collective forecast of the final margin outcome.